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UiTM FC vs Petaling Jaya City — Malaysia Cup 2019

UiTM FC
UiTM FC
FT
0 – 2
Petaling Jaya City
Petaling Jaya City
8/25/2019Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Group Stage - 4Stadium Mini UITM

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

UiTM FC36%
×Draw27%
Petaling Jaya City36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UiTM FC
1.25
Petaling Jaya City
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

UiTM FC
1.00
Petaling Jaya City
0.50

allows per match

UiTM FC
2.00
Petaling Jaya City
1.50

finishing

UiTM FC+0.00on par
Petaling Jaya City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UiTM FC ↓

Petaling Jaya City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

UiTM FC or draw
64%
UiTM FC or Petaling Jaya City
73%
Draw or Petaling Jaya City
64%

Winning margin

UiTM FC wins by 2+
16%
Petaling Jaya City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

UiTM FC 1+ goals
71%
UiTM FC 2+ goals
36%
UiTM FC 3+ goals
13%
Petaling Jaya City 1+ goals
71%
Petaling Jaya City 2+ goals
36%
Petaling Jaya City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

UiTM FC (draw refunded)
50%
Petaling Jaya City (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UiTM FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Petaling Jaya City away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UiTM FC attack 1.00 + Petaling Jaya City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Petaling Jaya City attack 0.50 + UiTM FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

UiTM FC scores more
36%
level
27%
Petaling Jaya City scores more
36%

UiTM FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "UiTM FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: UiTM FC 0–2 Petaling Jaya City

Petaling Jaya City beat UiTM FC 2-0 in Malaysia Cup on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Stadium Mini UITM in Shah Alam.