Udinese 2–2 Sassuolo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sassuolo

R. Pereyra 55'

L. Lucca 36'

D. Berardi 88' (pen), 75' (pen)

12/17/2023

Serie A · Round 16Bluenergy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Udinese42%

×Draw27%

Sassuolo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.17

Udinese

1.38

Sassuolo

1.17

Udinese creates 18% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 29 away

1.09

creates per match

1.16

1.17

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Udinese

1.09

Sassuolo

1.16

allows per match

Udinese

1.17

Sassuolo

1.66

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Udinese-0.13scores less

Sassuolo-0.09on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

68%

Udinese or Sassuolo

73%

Draw or Sassuolo

58%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

19%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

75%

Udinese 2+ goals

40%

Udinese 3+ goals

16%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

69%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

33%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

57%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.17 · 28 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.09 + Sassuolo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sassuolo attack 1.16 + Udinese defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Udinese scores more

42%

level

27%

Sassuolo scores more

32%

Udinese at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

R. Pereyra

Udinese · F

8.6

Match Events

20'

Marcus Pedersen

36'

L. Lucca↳ R. Pereyra

55'

R. Pereyra

56'

C. Volpato← D. Boloca

58'

Martín PayeroCard upgrade

59'

Martín Payero

71'

K. Ehizibue← H. Kamara

71'

S. Mulattieri← M. Pedersen

75'

D. BerardiPenalty

77'

Festy Ebosele

77'

A. Masina← F. Ebosele

88'

D. BerardiPenalty

89'

E. Ceïde← A. Laurienté

90+2'

90'

90+1'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseSassuolo

Overview

33%Possession67%

9Total Shots21

0.81Expected Goals (xG)3.03

1Corners13

13Fouls6

Shots

9Total Shots21

7On Target7

1Off Target6

1Blocked8

6Inside Box12

3Outside Box9

Passing

33%Possession67%

246Total Passes477

173Accurate Passes395

70%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls6

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0