Sassuolo 3–1 Udinese: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sassuolo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Udinese

E. Iannoni 81'

I. Kone 12'

A. Lauriente 8'

K. Davis 56'

9/28/2025

Serie A · Round 5MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Sassuolo37%

×Draw27%

Udinese37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SassuoloExpected goals in this matchUdinese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

Sassuolo

1.29

Udinese

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 28 away

1.02

creates per match

1.09

1.48

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Sassuolo

1.02

Udinese

1.09

allows per match

Sassuolo

1.48

Udinese

1.56

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Sassuolo+0.23scores more

Udinese+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Udinese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw

63%

Sassuolo or Udinese

73%

Draw or Udinese

63%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+

16%

Udinese wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals

72%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

37%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

14%

Udinese 1+ goals

72%

Udinese 2+ goals

37%

Udinese 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

50%

Udinese (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.48 · 24 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.56 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.02 + Udinese defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.29

Udinese attack 1.09 + Sassuolo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sassuolo scores more

37%

level

27%

Udinese scores more

37%

Sassuolo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

A. Lauriente↳ D. Berardi

12'

I. Kone↳ A. Lauriente

18'

Jakub Piotrowski

27'

Nicolò ZanioloPenalty cancelled

41'

Oumar SoletPenalty cancelled

45+3'

Nicolò Zaniolo

46'

K. Ehizibue← M. Palma

46'

L. Miller← J. Piotrowski

56'

K. Davis

58'

K. Thorstvedt← A. Vranckx

58'

A. Fadera← A. Lauriente

61'

Kingsley Ehizibue

67'

J. Ekkelenkamp← A. Zanoli

76'

I. Gueye← N. Zaniolo

79'

W. Coulibaly← S. Walukiewicz

80'

E. Iannoni← I. Kone

80'

S. Lovric← A. Atta

81'

E. Iannoni↳ A. Fadera

86'

W. Cheddira← A. Pinamonti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SassuoloUdinese

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots12

1.24Expected Goals (xG)1.32

1Corners5

5Fouls22

Shots

11Total Shots12

5On Target5

3Off Target6

3Blocked1

8Inside Box6

3Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

321Total Passes404

252Accurate Passes342

79%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

-1.00Goals Prevented-1.00

Discipline

5Fouls22

0Yellow Cards3

5Offsides1

Match Recap: Sassuolo vs Udinese

Sassuolo beat Udinese 3-1 in Serie A on September 28, 2025.

Goals: A. Lauriente (8'), I. Kone (12'), K. Davis (56'), E. Iannoni (81').

Udinese controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia.

Sassuolo vs Udinese — Serie A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sassuolo vs Udinese