Udinese 2–2 Sassuolo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Sassuolo

J. Bijol 28'

D. Udogie 1'

N. Pérez 45+2' (OG)

Matheus Henrique 6'

2/12/2023

Serie A · Round 22Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Udinese42%

×Draw27%

Sassuolo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.17

Udinese

1.38

Sassuolo

1.17

Udinese creates 18% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 29 away

1.09

creates per match

1.16

1.17

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Udinese

1.09

Sassuolo

1.16

allows per match

Udinese

1.17

Sassuolo

1.66

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Udinese-0.13scores less

Sassuolo-0.09on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

68%

Udinese or Sassuolo

73%

Draw or Sassuolo

58%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

19%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

75%

Udinese 2+ goals

40%

Udinese 3+ goals

16%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

69%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

33%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

57%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.17 · 28 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.09 + Sassuolo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sassuolo attack 1.16 + Udinese defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Udinese scores more

42%

level

27%

Sassuolo scores more

32%

Udinese at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

J. Bijol

Udinese · D

8.3

Match Events

1'

D. Udogie↳ J. Bijol

6'

Matheus Henrique

12'

N. Bajrami← D. Berardi

28'

J. Bijol↳ L. Samardžić

31'

Armand Laurienté

45+2'

N. PérezOwn goal

46'

F. Thauvin← R. Pereyra

46'

M. Lopez← Pedro Obiang

55'

Kingsley Ehizibue

56'

Nadir Zortea

66'

A. Harroui← R. Marchizza

67'

A. Pinamonti← G. Defrel

72'

I. Success← Beto

80'

T. Arslan← S. Lovrić

81'

Nehuén Pérez

86'

S. Pafundi← L. Samardžić

86'

E. Ebosse← N. Pérez

87'

G. Ferrari← A. Laurienté

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseSassuolo

Overview

47%Possession53%

17Total Shots6

1.65Expected Goals (xG)0.73

10Corners7

12Fouls8

Shots

17Total Shots6

8On Target1

4Off Target5

5Blocked0

11Inside Box6

6Outside Box0

Passing

47%Possession53%

394Total Passes443

344Accurate Passes393

87%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0

Serie A: Udinese 2–2 Sassuolo

Udinese and Sassuolo drew 2-2 in Serie A on February 12, 2023.

Goals: D. Udogie (1'), Matheus Henrique (6'), J. Bijol (28'), N. Pérez (45+2' o.g.).

Sassuolo controlled possession (53%) and registered 6 shots to 17.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.

Udinese vs Sassuolo — Serie A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Udinese 2–2 Sassuolo