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Sassuolo vs Udinese — Serie A 2018

Sassuolo
Sassuolo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Udinese
Udinese
G. Defrel 41'
F. Thauvin 44'
4/1/2024Serie ASerie A · Round 30MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Sassuolo37%
×Draw27%
Udinese37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sassuolo
1.29
Udinese
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 28 away

creates per match

Sassuolo
1.02
Udinese
1.09

allows per match

Sassuolo
1.48
Udinese
1.56

finishing

Sassuolo+0.23scores more
Udinese+0.20scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Udinese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw
63%
Sassuolo or Udinese
73%
Draw or Udinese
63%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+
16%
Udinese wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals
72%
Sassuolo 2+ goals
37%
Sassuolo 3+ goals
14%
Udinese 1+ goals
72%
Udinese 2+ goals
37%
Udinese 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)
50%
Udinese (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.48 · 24 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.56 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.02 + Udinese defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.29

Udinese attack 1.09 + Sassuolo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sassuolo scores more
37%
level
27%
Udinese scores more
37%

Sassuolo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42
K. ThorstvedtSassuoloSassuolo · M
7.9

Match Events

16'
Lorenzo Lucca
25'
Jaka Bijol
40'
Josh Doig
41'
G. Defrel↳ Matheus Henrique
44'
F. Thauvin
72'
D. Boloca← U. Račić
77'
Oier Zarraga← S. Lovrić
79'
N. Bajrami← G. Defrel
80'
Samu Castillejo← Matheus Henrique
89'
I. Success← L. Lucca
90+1'
C. Volpato← A. Laurienté
90'
K. Ehizibue← F. Thauvin

Possession

60%Sassuolo

Shots

14Sassuolo

Pass accuracy

52%Sassuolo

Statistics

SassuoloUdinese
Overview
60%Possession40%
14Total Shots12
1.20Expected Goals (xG)1.52
10Corners1
7Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots12
5On Target3
7Off Target6
2Blocked3
8Inside Box11
6Outside Box1
Passing
60%Possession40%
471Total Passes325
397Accurate Passes256
84%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Sassuolo vs Udinese

Sassuolo and Udinese drew 1-1 in Serie A on April 1, 2024.

Goals: G. Defrel (41'), F. Thauvin (44').

Sassuolo controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia.