Udinese 3–0 Sassuolo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sassuolo

Rodrigo De Paul 90'

Ken Sema 68'

Stefano Okaka 14'

1/12/2020

Serie A · Round 19Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Udinese41%

×Draw26%

Sassuolo33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.21

Udinese

1.37

Sassuolo

1.21

Udinese creates 13% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 33 away

1.08

creates per match

1.23

1.18

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Udinese

1.08

Sassuolo

1.23

allows per match

Udinese

1.18

Sassuolo

1.66

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Udinese-0.15scores less

Sassuolo+0.01on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

67%

Udinese or Sassuolo

74%

Draw or Sassuolo

59%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

19%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

75%

Udinese 2+ goals

40%

Udinese 3+ goals

16%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

70%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

34%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

55%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.66 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.08 + Sassuolo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.37

Sassuolo attack 1.23 + Udinese defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Udinese scores more

41%

level

26%

Sassuolo scores more

33%

Udinese at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Bram Nuytinck

Udinese · D

8.0

Match Events

14'

Stefano Okaka↳ Rolando Mandragora

62'

Ignacio Pussetto← Kevin Lasagna

68'

Ken Sema↳ Seko Fofana

69'

Giacomo Raspadori← Filip Đuričić

75'

Mato Jajalo← Rolando Mandragora

75'

Mert Müldür← Jeremy Toljan

85'

Łukasz Teodorczyk← Stefano Okaka

86'

Giorgos Kyriakopoulos← Rogério

90'

Rodrigo De Paul↳ Seko Fofana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseSassuolo

Overview

37%Possession63%

14Total Shots17

6Corners11

13Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots17

8On Target3

5Off Target7

1Blocked7

12Inside Box8

2Outside Box9

Passing

37%Possession63%

327Total Passes552

260Accurate Passes476

80%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls13