Udinese 1–1 Sassuolo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sassuolo

Pol Lirola 80' (OG)

S. Sensi 31'

4/20/2019

Serie A · Round 33Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Udinese40%

×Draw27%

Sassuolo33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.21

Udinese

1.36

Sassuolo

1.21

Udinese creates 12% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 34 away

1.08

creates per match

1.23

1.18

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Udinese

1.08

Sassuolo

1.23

allows per match

Udinese

1.18

Sassuolo

1.64

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Udinese-0.15scores less

Sassuolo+0.01on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

67%

Udinese or Sassuolo

73%

Draw or Sassuolo

60%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

19%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

74%

Udinese 2+ goals

39%

Udinese 3+ goals

16%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

70%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

34%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

55%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.64 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.08 + Sassuolo defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sassuolo attack 1.23 + Udinese defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Udinese scores more

40%

level

27%

Sassuolo scores more

33%

Udinese at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

R. de Paul

Udinese · M

7.5

Match Events

14'

Rolando Mandragora

17'

Sandro← S. Fofana

25'

Merih Demiral

28'

Sandro

31'

S. Sensi↳ D. Berardi

46'

F. Peluso← G. Magnani

57'

K. Lasagna← S. De Maio

65'

M. Locatelli← S. Sensi

70'

Jens Stryger Larsen

76'

Ł. Teodorczyk← W. Troost-Ekong

79'

Manuel Locatelli

80'

Pol LirolaOwn goal

85'

A. Duncan← J. Boga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseSassuolo

Overview

44%Possession56%

14Total Shots10

6Corners5

20Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots10

4On Target2

7Off Target5

3Blocked3

5Inside Box3

9Outside Box7

Passing

44%Possession56%

340Total Passes433

257Accurate Passes355

76%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

20Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2