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U. San Martin vs Sport Huancayo — Primera División 2026

U. San Martin
U. San Martin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
A. Rojas 43'
R. Huaccha 16'
4/24/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 11Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

U. San Martin40%
×Draw26%
Sport Huancayo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. San Martin
1.38
Sport Huancayo
1.23

U. San Martin creates 12% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 142 away

creates per match

U. San Martin
1.27
Sport Huancayo
1.04

allows per match

U. San Martin
1.43
Sport Huancayo
1.48

finishing

U. San Martin+0.00on par
Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. San Martin ↓

Sport Huancayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

U. San Martin or draw
67%
U. San Martin or Sport Huancayo
74%
Draw or Sport Huancayo
60%

Winning margin

U. San Martin wins by 2+
19%
Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

U. San Martin 1+ goals
75%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
40%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
16%
Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
71%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
35%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

U. San Martin (draw refunded)
55%
Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. San Martin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.43 · 70 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.48 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. San Martin attack 1.27 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sport Huancayo attack 1.04 + U. San Martin defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

U. San Martin scores more
40%
level
26%
Sport Huancayo scores more
33%

U. San Martin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "U. San Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
R. HuacchaSport HuancayoSport Huancayo · F
7.9

Match Events

16'
R. Huaccha↳ C. Ross
21'
Joffré Escobar
43'
A. Rojas
45'
Juan Tuesta
58'
A. Campos← Y. Oliva
60'
D. Manicero← J. Pérez
66'
Marcos Delgado
69'
Jimmy Valoyes
72'
J. Bustamante← A. Rojas
74'
L. Benítes← M. Lliuya
74'
V. Perlaza← R. Huaccha
77'
Axel Moyano
82'
Alfredo Rojas
82'
C. Monsalvo← A. Rosell
84'
D. Morales← C. Ross
90+4'
D. Soto← J. Escobar
90+4'
C. Arroyo← A. Moyano

Possession

U.: 44Sport: 5644%U.

Shots

U.: 9Sport: 159U.

Pass accuracy

U.: 68Sport: 7847%U.

Statistics

U.Sport
Overview
44%Possession56%
9Total Shots15
6Corners6
14Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots15
2On Target2
5Off Target4
2Blocked9
8Inside Box7
1Outside Box8
Passing
44%Possession56%
359Total Passes460
245Accurate Passes357
68%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls15
4Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: U. San Martin vs Sport Huancayo

U. San Martin and Sport Huancayo drew 1-1 in Primera División on April 24, 2022.

Goals: R. Huaccha (16'), A. Rojas (43').

Sport Huancayo controlled possession (56%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.