Sport Huancayo 4–3 U. San Martin: Result & Stats

Sport Huancayo

FT

4 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

U. San Martin

V. Balta 90'

R. Huaccha 88'

C. Monsalvo 59'

D. Morales 51'

J. Guivin 73'

J. Concha 45+3' (pen)

G. Gentile 27'

9/25/2020

Primera División · Apertura - 14Estadio Universidad San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Sport Huancayo53%

×Draw24%

U. San Martin23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport HuancayoExpected goals in this matchU. San Martin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.00

Sport Huancayo

1.67

U. San Martin

1.00

Sport Huancayo creates 67% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 77 away

1.65

creates per match

0.96

1.05

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Sport Huancayo

1.65

U. San Martin

0.96

allows per match

Sport Huancayo

1.05

U. San Martin

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

U. San Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

U. San Martin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw

77%

Sport Huancayo or U. San Martin

76%

Draw or U. San Martin

47%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

29%

U. San Martin wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

81%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

50%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

23%

U. San Martin 1+ goals

63%

U. San Martin 2+ goals

26%

U. San Martin 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

70%

U. San Martin (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.05 · 133 matches

U. San Martin away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.68 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.65 + U. San Martin defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.67

U. San Martin attack 0.96 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more

53%

level

24%

U. San Martin scores more

23%

Sport Huancayo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

C. Monsalvo

Sport Huancayo · F

8.2

Match Events

4'

24'

27'

38'

45'

45+3'

J. ConchaPenalty

46'

L. Campos← L. Villar

46'

J. Bazán← V. Peña

51'

D. Morales↳ J. Bazán

59'

C. Monsalvo↳ J. Valoyes

67'

O. Pinto← F. Zanelatto

69'

Daniel Morales

69'

Óscar Pinto

73'

J. Guivin↳ S. Gonzáles

77'

M. Velásquez← A. Rojas

78'

A. Barco← S. Gonzáles

82'

R. Huaccha← G. Carmona

87'

H. Bazán← G. Gentile

88'

R. Huaccha↳ C. Monsalvo

90+1'

C. Caraza← D. Morales

90'

V. Balta↳ J. Valoyes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportU.

Overview

55%Possession45%

11Total Shots19

6Corners6

23Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots19

7On Target7

2Off Target5

2Blocked7

6Inside Box12

5Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

416Total Passes335

350Accurate Passes252

84%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls14

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Sport Huancayo vs U. San Martin

Sport Huancayo beat U. San Martin 4-3 in Primera División on September 25, 2020.

Goals: G. Gentile (27'), J. Concha (45+3' pen), D. Morales (51'), C. Monsalvo (59'), J. Guivin (73'), R. Huaccha (88'), V. Balta (90').

Sport Huancayo controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estadio Universidad San Marcos in Lima.

Sport Huancayo vs U. San Martin — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sport Huancayo vs U. San Martin