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Sport Huancayo vs U. San Martin — Primera División 2026

Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
U. San Martin
U. San Martin
R. Huaccha 88'
V. Balta 45+1'
H. Ángeles 19'
M. Pérez 14' (pen)
9/19/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 11Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Sport Huancayo53%
×Draw24%
U. San Martin23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Huancayo
1.67
U. San Martin
1.00

Sport Huancayo creates 67% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 77 away

creates per match

Sport Huancayo
1.65
U. San Martin
0.96

allows per match

Sport Huancayo
1.05
U. San Martin
1.68

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par
U. San Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

U. San Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw
77%
Sport Huancayo or U. San Martin
76%
Draw or U. San Martin
47%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
29%
U. San Martin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
81%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
50%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
23%
U. San Martin 1+ goals
63%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
26%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
70%
U. San Martin (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.05 · 133 matches

U. San Martin away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.68 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.65 + U. San Martin defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.67

U. San Martin attack 0.96 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more
53%
level
24%
U. San Martin scores more
23%

Sport Huancayo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
V. BaltaSport HuancayoSport Huancayo · D
8.5

Match Events

9'
Hugo Ángeles
14'
M. PérezPenalty
19'
H. Ángeles↳ V. Balta
29'
R. Huaccha← M. Huamán
34'
Martin Perez Guedes
45+1'
V. Balta↳ O. Barreto
46'
L. Benítes← H. Ángeles
46'
F. Zanelatto← S. Rebagliati
50'
Victor Balta
61'
K. Ruíz← N. Figueroa
67'
D. Morales← O. Barreto
69'
Giancarlo Carmona
79'
M. Valverde← Alfredo Rojas
85'
Francesco Cavagna
88'
R. Huaccha↳ D. Morales

Possession

Sport: 56U.: 4456%Sport

Shots

Sport: 10U.: 710Sport

Pass accuracy

Sport: 81U.: 6954%Sport

Statistics

SportU.
Overview
56%Possession44%
10Total Shots7
5Corners6
16Fouls22
Shots
10Total Shots7
6On Target2
2Off Target2
2Blocked3
9Inside Box3
1Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
422Total Passes324
343Accurate Passes222
81%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls22
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Primera División: Sport Huancayo 3–1 U. San Martin

Sport Huancayo beat U. San Martin 3-1 in Primera División on September 19, 2021.

Goals: M. Pérez (14' pen), H. Ángeles (19'), V. Balta (45+1'), R. Huaccha (88').

Sport Huancayo controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao in Callao.