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U. San Martin vs Sport Huancayo — Primera División 2026

U. San Martin
U. San Martin
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
6/10/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 6Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

U. San Martin40%
×Draw26%
Sport Huancayo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. San Martin
1.38
Sport Huancayo
1.23

U. San Martin creates 12% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 142 away

creates per match

U. San Martin
1.27
Sport Huancayo
1.04

allows per match

U. San Martin
1.43
Sport Huancayo
1.48

finishing

U. San Martin+0.00on par
Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. San Martin ↓

Sport Huancayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

U. San Martin or draw
67%
U. San Martin or Sport Huancayo
74%
Draw or Sport Huancayo
60%

Winning margin

U. San Martin wins by 2+
19%
Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

U. San Martin 1+ goals
75%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
40%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
16%
Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
71%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
35%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

U. San Martin (draw refunded)
55%
Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. San Martin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.43 · 70 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.48 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. San Martin attack 1.27 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sport Huancayo attack 1.04 + U. San Martin defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

U. San Martin scores more
40%
level
26%
Sport Huancayo scores more
33%

U. San Martin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "U. San Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
M. ValverdeSport HuancayoSport Huancayo · M
8.1

Match Events

34'
Richard Salinas
45'
Marcio Valverde
56'
Koffi Dakoi
63'
Miguel Camargo
63'
C. Gonzáles← W. Calderón
66'
F. Anoumou← M. Camargo
72'
Koffi Dakoi
72'
Koffi Dakoi
74'
D. Morales← L. Trujillo
83'
J. Bolívar← G. Correa
83'
V. Peña← A. Rojas
85'
Carlos Gonzales
90'
Manuel Corrales
90+1'
D. Zurek← A. Loba

Possession

U.: 54Sport: 4654%U.

Shots

U.: 13Sport: 1313U.

Pass accuracy

U.: 89Sport: 8551%U.

Statistics

U.Sport
Overview
54%Possession46%
13Total Shots13
7Corners6
15Fouls24
Shots
13Total Shots13
3On Target3
5Off Target6
5Blocked4
3Inside Box7
10Outside Box6
Passing
54%Possession46%
488Total Passes403
432Accurate Passes341
89%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls24
3Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
5Offsides4

Primera División: U. San Martin 0–0 Sport Huancayo

U. San Martin and Sport Huancayo drew 0-0 in Primera División on June 10, 2018.

U. San Martin controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Gallardo in Lima.