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U. San Martin vs Sport Boys — Primera División 2026

U. San Martin
U. San Martin
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sport Boys
Sport Boys
A. Rojas 71'
Á. Ampuero 25'
2/21/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 3Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

U. San Martin46%
×Draw25%
Sport Boys29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. San Martin
1.52
Sport Boys
1.15

U. San Martin creates 32% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 136 away

creates per match

U. San Martin
1.27
Sport Boys
0.87

allows per match

U. San Martin
1.43
Sport Boys
1.78

finishing

U. San Martin+0.00on par
Sport Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. San Martin ↓

Sport Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

U. San Martin or draw
71%
U. San Martin or Sport Boys
75%
Draw or Sport Boys
54%

Winning margin

U. San Martin wins by 2+
23%
Sport Boys wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

U. San Martin 1+ goals
78%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
45%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
20%
Sport Boys 1+ goals
68%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
32%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

U. San Martin (draw refunded)
61%
Sport Boys (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. San Martin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.43 · 70 matches

Sport Boys away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.78 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. San Martin attack 1.27 + Sport Boys defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sport Boys attack 0.87 + U. San Martin defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

U. San Martin scores more
46%
level
25%
Sport Boys scores more
29%

U. San Martin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "U. San Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. ParraU. San MartinU. San Martin · G
8.5

Match Events

25'
Á. Ampuero↳ D. Espinoza
46'
D. Saffadi← V. Bazán
58'
V. Sandoval← C. Arroyo
71'
A. Rojas↳ G. Verón
72'
J. Alarcón← E. Uribe
80'
M. Palomino← L. Nieto
81'
P. Zevallos← A. Rojas
83'
Piero Zevallos
86'
Mario Palomino
87'
Piero Zevallos
87'
Piero Zevallos
90+2'
Sebastian Aranda
90'
J. Safra← D. Espinoza
90'
R. Gamarra← G. Verón

Possession

43%U.

Shots

14U.

Pass accuracy

49%U.

Statistics

U.Sport
Overview
43%Possession57%
14Total Shots18
4Corners10
21Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots18
5On Target6
5Off Target7
4Blocked5
10Inside Box14
4Outside Box4
Passing
43%Possession57%
306Total Passes386
240Accurate Passes308
78%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
21Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
2Offsides5

Primera División: U. San Martin 2–0 Sport Boys

U. San Martin beat Sport Boys 2-0 in Primera División on February 21, 2022.

Goals: Á. Ampuero (25'), A. Rojas (71').

Sport Boys controlled possession (57%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva in Lima.