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U. San Martin vs Sport Boys — Primera División 2026

U. San Martin
U. San Martin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sport Boys
Sport Boys
S. Gonzáles 90+3'
S. Penco 66' (pen)
10/10/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 17Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

U. San Martin46%
×Draw25%
Sport Boys29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. San Martin
1.52
Sport Boys
1.15

U. San Martin creates 32% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 136 away

creates per match

U. San Martin
1.27
Sport Boys
0.87

allows per match

U. San Martin
1.43
Sport Boys
1.78

finishing

U. San Martin+0.00on par
Sport Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. San Martin ↓

Sport Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

U. San Martin or draw
71%
U. San Martin or Sport Boys
75%
Draw or Sport Boys
54%

Winning margin

U. San Martin wins by 2+
23%
Sport Boys wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

U. San Martin 1+ goals
78%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
45%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
20%
Sport Boys 1+ goals
68%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
32%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

U. San Martin (draw refunded)
61%
Sport Boys (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. San Martin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.43 · 70 matches

Sport Boys away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.78 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. San Martin attack 1.27 + Sport Boys defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sport Boys attack 0.87 + U. San Martin defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

U. San Martin scores more
46%
level
25%
Sport Boys scores more
29%

U. San Martin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "U. San Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. MedinaSport BoysSport Boys · G
8.0

Match Events

31'
J. Portales← W. Schüler
32'
Jesus Chavez
42'
Hansell Riojas
44'
Gaspar Gentile
61'
Y. Oliva← G. Gentile
66'
S. PencoPenalty
71'
C. Villagra← P. Ratto
74'
H. Bazán← F. Zanelatto
74'
N. Figueroa← J. Bolívar
74'
S. Salas← L. Garro
82'
F. Oncoy← C. Torrejón
84'
Manuel Tejada
88'
Y. Quintanilla← I. Huguenet
90+3'
S. Gonzáles↳ Y. Oliva

Possession

63%U.

Shots

8U.

Pass accuracy

57%U.

Statistics

U.Sport
Overview
63%Possession37%
8Total Shots10
5Corners5
14Fouls22
Shots
8Total Shots10
7On Target5
0Off Target3
1Blocked2
3Inside Box5
5Outside Box5
Passing
63%Possession37%
427Total Passes239
357Accurate Passes153
84%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
Discipline
14Fouls22
1Yellow Cards3
4Offsides3

Match Recap: U. San Martin vs Sport Boys

U. San Martin and Sport Boys drew 1-1 in Primera División on October 10, 2020.

Goals: S. Penco (66' pen), S. Gonzáles (90+3').

U. San Martin controlled possession (63%) and registered 8 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.