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Sport Boys vs U. San Martin — Primera División 2026

Sport Boys
Sport Boys
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
U. San Martin
U. San Martin
S. Penco 69'
W. Schüler 43' (OG)
8/15/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Sport Boys46%
×Draw26%
U. San Martin28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Boys
1.49
U. San Martin
1.09

Sport Boys creates 37% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 77 away

creates per match

Sport Boys
1.30
U. San Martin
0.96

allows per match

Sport Boys
1.23
U. San Martin
1.68

finishing

Sport Boys+0.00on par
U. San Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

U. San Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw
72%
Sport Boys or U. San Martin
74%
Draw or U. San Martin
54%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+
23%
U. San Martin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals
77%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
44%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
19%
U. San Martin 1+ goals
66%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
30%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)
63%
U. San Martin (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.23 · 133 matches

U. San Martin away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.68 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.30 + U. San Martin defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.49

U. San Martin attack 0.96 + Sport Boys defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sport Boys scores more
46%
level
26%
U. San Martin scores more
28%

Sport Boys at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sport Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
E. NungaraySport BoysSport Boys · D
7.6

Match Events

23'
Carlos Junior Huerto
41'
Jose Inga
43'
W. SchülerOwn goal
58'
D. González← J. Inga
61'
D. Ramírez← J. Alarcón
69'
H. Bazán← K. Ruíz
69'
N. Figueroa← P. Vivanco
69'
S. Penco↳ E. Nungaray
77'
J. Chávez← L. Ramírez
82'
L. Campana← S. Penco

Possession

51%Sport

Shots

11Sport

Pass accuracy

50%Sport

Statistics

SportU.
Overview
51%Possession49%
11Total Shots7
13Corners3
15Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots7
3On Target1
4Off Target4
4Blocked2
4Inside Box6
7Outside Box1
Passing
51%Possession49%
424Total Passes396
343Accurate Passes323
81%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls15
0Yellow Cards2
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Sport Boys vs U. San Martin

Sport Boys beat U. San Martin 2-0 in Primera División on August 15, 2021.

Goals: W. Schüler (43' o.g.), S. Penco (69').

Sport Boys controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Gallardo in Lima.