Sport Boys 2–0 U. San Martin: Result & Stats

Sport Boys

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

U. San Martin

M. Guevgeozián 71'

D. Saffadi 45+1'

7/23/2022

Primera División · Clausura - 3Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Sport Boys46%

×Draw26%

U. San Martin28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport BoysExpected goals in this matchU. San Martin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.09

Sport Boys

1.49

U. San Martin

1.09

Sport Boys creates 37% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 77 away

1.30

creates per match

0.96

1.23

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Sport Boys

1.30

U. San Martin

0.96

allows per match

Sport Boys

1.23

U. San Martin

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Boys+0.00on par

U. San Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

U. San Martin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw

72%

Sport Boys or U. San Martin

74%

Draw or U. San Martin

54%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+

23%

U. San Martin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals

77%

Sport Boys 2+ goals

44%

Sport Boys 3+ goals

19%

U. San Martin 1+ goals

66%

U. San Martin 2+ goals

30%

U. San Martin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)

63%

U. San Martin (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.23 · 133 matches

U. San Martin away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.68 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.30 + U. San Martin defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.49

U. San Martin attack 0.96 + Sport Boys defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sport Boys scores more

46%

level

26%

U. San Martin scores more

28%

Sport Boys at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sport Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

J. Bolívar

Sport Boys · D

7.7

Match Events

27'

45+1'

60'

60'

61'

65'

68'

70'

C. Arroyo← S. La Torre

70'

D. Espinoza← G. Verón

71'

M. Guevgeozián↳ J. Alarcón

77'

M. Palomino← P. Vivanco

77'

J. Chávez← D. Saffadi

80'

D. Camacho← Y. Oliva

83'

Jose Bolivar

83'

L. Nieto← M. Guevgeozián

86'

Claudio Torrejón

90+1'

A. García← L. Ramírez

90'

E. Uribe← C. Torrejón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportU.

Overview

48%Possession52%

8Total Shots10

6Corners6

15Fouls18

Shots

8Total Shots10

2On Target3

5Off Target5

1Blocked2

7Inside Box7

1Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

329Total Passes345

243Accurate Passes270

74%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls18

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides1