U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–2 Monarcas: Result & Stats

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Monarcas

L. Quintana 6'

M. Sansores 90+1'

R. Millar 47'

2/23/2020

Liga MX · Clausura - 7Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas45%

×Draw25%

Monarcas30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.23

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.58

Monarcas

1.23

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 28% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 36 away

1.59

creates per match

1.36

1.09

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.59

Monarcas

1.36

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.09

Monarcas

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

70%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Monarcas

75%

Draw or Monarcas

55%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

23%

Monarcas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

79%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

47%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

21%

Monarcas 1+ goals

71%

Monarcas 2+ goals

35%

Monarcas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

60%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.59 + Monarcas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Monarcas attack 1.36 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

45%

level

25%

Monarcas scores more

30%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

R. Millar

Monarcas · M

8.1

Match Events

6'

L. Quintana↳ P. Barrera

47'

R. Millar

53'

J. Dinenno← S. Saucedo

55'

M. Sansores← F. Aristeguieta

62'

Alan Mozo

65'

I. Malcorra← F. Álvarez

75'

L. Villafáñez← L. Mendoza

82'

86'

87'

90'

90+3'

90+1'

M. Sansores↳ L. Villafáñez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Monarcas

Overview

36%Possession64%

13Total Shots10

7Corners9

12Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots10

3On Target5

6Off Target1

4Blocked4

9Inside Box7

4Outside Box3

Passing

36%Possession64%

251Total Passes458

190Accurate Passes398

76%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides6