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Monarcas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Monarcas
Monarcas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
F. Aristeguieta 62', 34'
8/24/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 6Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Monarcas43%
×Draw25%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monarcas
1.54
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.29

Monarcas creates 19% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 151 away

creates per match

Monarcas
1.54
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.13

allows per match

Monarcas
1.46
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.54

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw
68%
Monarcas or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
75%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
57%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+
21%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals
79%
Monarcas 2+ goals
45%
Monarcas 3+ goals
20%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
72%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
37%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)
57%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 37 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.54 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Monarcas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Monarcas scores more
43%
level
25%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
32%

Monarcas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
F. AristeguietaMonarcasMonarcas · F
8.4

Match Events

19'
Juan Vigón
34'
F. Aristeguieta↳ J. Martínez
43'
Joaquín Martínez
46'
B. Figueroa← J. Vigón
46'
J. Iturbe← P. Barrera
56'
Sebastián Sosa
58'
Victor Malcorra
62'
F. Aristeguieta↳ M. Osuna
66'
F. Mora← J. Angulo
69'
R. Millar← É. Flores
80'
Aldo Rocha
86'
L. Mendoza← L. Villafáñez
90'
E. Del Ángel← G. Lezcano

Possession

45%Monarcas

Shots

5Monarcas

Pass accuracy

48%Monarcas

Statistics

MonarcasU.N.A.M.
Overview
45%Possession55%
5Total Shots18
2Corners11
19Fouls9
Shots
5Total Shots18
2On Target2
2Off Target6
1Blocked10
4Inside Box6
1Outside Box12
Passing
45%Possession55%
303Total Passes351
232Accurate Passes287
77%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
19Fouls9
3Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Monarcas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Monarcas beat U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2-0 in Liga MX on August 24, 2019.

Goals: F. Aristeguieta (34', 62').

U.N.A.M. - Pumas controlled possession (55%) and registered 18 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón in Morelia.