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Monarcas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Monarcas
Monarcas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
9/22/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 10Estadio Jose Maria Morelos y Pavon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Monarcas43%
×Draw25%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monarcas
1.54
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.29

Monarcas creates 19% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 151 away

creates per match

Monarcas
1.54
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.13

allows per match

Monarcas
1.46
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.54

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw
68%
Monarcas or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
75%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
57%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+
21%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals
79%
Monarcas 2+ goals
45%
Monarcas 3+ goals
20%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
72%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
37%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)
57%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 37 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.54 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Monarcas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Monarcas scores more
43%
level
25%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
32%

Monarcas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
Jorge Valadéz
27'
Gabriel Achilier
41'
Juan Iturbe
60'
I. Ávila← S. Ferreira
61'
M. Alustiza← J. Iturbe
63'
Alan Mozo
69'
É. Flores← D. Valdés
79'
Aldo Rocha
81'
Roberto Meraz
81'
C. Fierro← R. Sandoval

Possession

57%Monarcas

Shots

12Monarcas

Pass accuracy

53%Monarcas

Statistics

MonarcasU.N.A.M.
Overview
57%Possession43%
12Total Shots10
6Corners4
12Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots10
3On Target2
6Off Target4
3Blocked4
7Inside Box5
5Outside Box5
Passing
57%Possession43%
310Total Passes229
241Accurate Passes157
78%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls14
4Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Monarcas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Monarcas and U.N.A.M. - Pumas drew 0-0 in Liga MX on September 22, 2018.

Monarcas controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Jose Maria Morelos y Pavon in Morelia.