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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Monarcas — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Monarcas
Monarcas
F. Mora 74'
J. Iturbe 64'
M. Osuna 50' (pen)
G. Lezcano 1'
3/10/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Olimpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas45%
×Draw25%
Monarcas30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.58
Monarcas
1.23

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 28% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 36 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.59
Monarcas
1.36

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.09
Monarcas
1.56

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par
Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Monarcas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
70%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Monarcas
75%
Draw or Monarcas
55%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
23%
Monarcas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
79%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
47%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
21%
Monarcas 1+ goals
71%
Monarcas 2+ goals
35%
Monarcas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
60%
Monarcas (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.59 + Monarcas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Monarcas attack 1.36 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
45%
level
25%
Monarcas scores more
30%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
J. IturbeU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · F
7.8

Match Events

1'
G. Lezcano↳ A. Rocha
36'
Alfredo Saldívar
38'
Juan Iturbe
40'
F. Mora← J. Angulo
43'
Efrain Velarde
46'
R. Meraz← R. Sandoval
50'
M. OsunaPenalty
64'
J. Iturbe↳ C. González
69'
M. Trejo← R. Millar
71'
R. Vilchis← É. Flores
74'
F. Mora↳ A. Mozo
75'
L. Quintana← Alejandro Arribas
80'
K. Escamilla← D. Cabrera
83'
Efrain Velarde
83'
Efrain Velarde

Possession

65%U.N.A.M.

Shots

16U.N.A.M.

Pass accuracy

56%U.N.A.M.

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Monarcas
Overview
65%Possession35%
16Total Shots15
9Corners1
16Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots15
7On Target7
5Off Target7
4Blocked1
8Inside Box7
8Outside Box8
Passing
65%Possession35%
371Total Passes217
283Accurate Passes131
76%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
5Saves6
Discipline
16Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
0Offsides2

Liga MX: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–2 Monarcas

U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Monarcas drew 2-2 in Liga MX on March 10, 2019.

Goals: G. Lezcano (1'), M. Osuna (50' pen), J. Iturbe (64'), F. Mora (74').

U.N.A.M. - Pumas controlled possession (65%) and registered 16 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico Universitario in Mexico City.