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Tshakhuma Madzivhadila vs TS Galaxy — Premier Soccer League 2018

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
TS Galaxy
TS Galaxy
L. Koapeng 84'
S. Kumalo 39'
L. Nonyane 33'
W. Lekay 90+3'
12/1/2021Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 10Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila37%
×Draw32%
TS Galaxy31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
0.99
TS Galaxy
0.89

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila creates 11% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 90 away

creates per match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
0.86
TS Galaxy
0.76

allows per match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
1.01
TS Galaxy
1.13

finishing

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila+0.00on par
TS Galaxy+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila ↓

TS Galaxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila or draw
69%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila or TS Galaxy
68%
Draw or TS Galaxy
63%

Winning margin

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila wins by 2+
14%
TS Galaxy wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1+ goals
63%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 2+ goals
26%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 3+ goals
8%
TS Galaxy 1+ goals
59%
TS Galaxy 2+ goals
22%
TS Galaxy 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila (draw refunded)
54%
TS Galaxy (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

TS Galaxy away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.13 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila attack 0.86 + TS Galaxy defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

TS Galaxy attack 0.76 + Tshakhuma Madzivhadila defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila scores more
37%
level
32%
TS Galaxy scores more
31%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tshakhuma Madzivhadila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
Igor Makitan
23'
Matome Kgoetyane
33'
L. Nonyane↳ J. Malongoane
39'
S. Kumalo↳ L. Mabotja
42'
L. Koapeng← L. Lamola
46'
E. Brooks← L. Mbatha
46'
W. Lekay← S. Mahlangu
46'
M. Mahlangu← M. Macuphu
63'
T. Nyama← S. Mngomezulu
71'
M. Mphambaniso← K. Otladisa
71'
N. Ndlondlo← C. Ngema
75'
Ebrahim Seedat
80'
Kgoapeng
81'
Sibusiso Khumalo
84'
L. Koapeng↳ M. Mphambaniso
90'
Lehlohonolo Nonyane
90+3'
W. Lekay

Shots

10Tshakhuma

Statistics

TshakhumaTS
Overview
10Total Shots8
2Corners5
12Fouls9
Shots
10Total Shots8
5On Target2
5Off Target6
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls9
4Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
4Offsides3

Match Recap: Tshakhuma Madzivhadila vs TS Galaxy

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila beat TS Galaxy 3-1 in Premier Soccer League on December 1, 2021.

Goals: L. Nonyane (33'), S. Kumalo (39'), L. Koapeng (84'), W. Lekay (90+3').

The match was played at Peter Mokaba Stadium in Pietersburg.