Marumo Gallants 1–1 TS Galaxy: Result & Stats

Marumo Gallants

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

TS Galaxy

Xolani Mlambo 67'

Samukelo Kabini 55'

10/26/2024

Premier Soccer League · Round 4Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Marumo Gallants37%

×Draw32%

TS Galaxy31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marumo GallantsExpected goals in this matchTS Galaxy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

0.89

Marumo Gallants

0.99

TS Galaxy

0.89

Marumo Gallants creates 11% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 90 away

0.86

creates per match

0.76

1.01

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Marumo Gallants

0.86

TS Galaxy

0.76

allows per match

Marumo Gallants

1.01

TS Galaxy

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

TS Galaxy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marumo Gallants ↓

TS Galaxy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Marumo Gallants or draw

69%

Marumo Gallants or TS Galaxy

68%

Draw or TS Galaxy

63%

Winning margin

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

14%

TS Galaxy wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

63%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

26%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

8%

TS Galaxy 1+ goals

59%

TS Galaxy 2+ goals

22%

TS Galaxy 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

54%

TS Galaxy (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marumo Gallants at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

TS Galaxy away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.13 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marumo Gallants attack 0.86 + TS Galaxy defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

TS Galaxy attack 0.76 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Marumo Gallants scores more

37%

level

32%

TS Galaxy scores more

31%

Marumo Gallants at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Marumo Gallants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Samukelo Kabini

TS Galaxy · D

7.7

Match Events

18'

Siyabonga Sibanyoni

28'

Mbulelo Wagaba

28'

Sphiwe Mahlangu← Qobolwakhe Sibande

28'

Nkosikhona Radebe← Siyabonga Sibanyoni

42'

Edgar Manaka

45'

Thato Khiba

46'

Thapelo Dhludhlu← Mbulelo Wagaba

46'

Mlungisi Mbunjana← Thato Khiba

52'

Washington Arubi

55'

Samukelo Kabini↳ Puso Dithejane

62'

Puso Dithejane

64'

Xolani Mlambo← Sekela Sithole

64'

Thapelo Mokobodi← Mpambaniso Monde

67'

Xolani Mlambo

67'

Nhlanhla Mgaga← Puso Dithejane

73'

Samukelo Kabini

87'

Trevor Mathiane← Mbhazima Rikhotso

90'

Siyabonga Nhlapo← Siyabulela Shai

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MarumoTS

Overview

43%Possession57%

7Total Shots13

2Corners5

13Fouls19

Shots

7Total Shots13

2On Target3

3Off Target9

2Blocked1

2Inside Box8

5Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

306Total Passes406

229Accurate Passes326

75%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls19

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides5