Marumo Gallants 1–1 TS Galaxy: Result & Stats

Marumo Gallants

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

TS Galaxy

N. Ndlondlo 17' (pen)

S. Mahlambi 35'

5/6/2026

Premier Soccer League · Round 27Thohoyandou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Marumo Gallants37%

×Draw32%

TS Galaxy31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marumo GallantsExpected goals in this matchTS Galaxy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

0.89

Marumo Gallants

0.99

TS Galaxy

0.89

Marumo Gallants creates 11% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 90 away

0.86

creates per match

0.76

1.01

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Marumo Gallants

0.86

TS Galaxy

0.76

allows per match

Marumo Gallants

1.01

TS Galaxy

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

TS Galaxy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marumo Gallants ↓

TS Galaxy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Marumo Gallants or draw

69%

Marumo Gallants or TS Galaxy

68%

Draw or TS Galaxy

63%

Winning margin

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

14%

TS Galaxy wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

63%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

26%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

8%

TS Galaxy 1+ goals

59%

TS Galaxy 2+ goals

22%

TS Galaxy 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

54%

TS Galaxy (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marumo Gallants at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

TS Galaxy away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.13 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marumo Gallants attack 0.86 + TS Galaxy defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

TS Galaxy attack 0.76 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Marumo Gallants scores more

37%

level

32%

TS Galaxy scores more

31%

Marumo Gallants at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Marumo Gallants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

L. Motaung

TS Galaxy · D

7.5

Match Events

17'

N. NdlondloPenalty

35'

S. Mahlambi

46'

S. Maduna← M. Mvelase

50'

Mbhazima Rikhotso

53'

Veluyeke Zulu

53'

B. Mabuza← K. Otladisa

63'

N. Nkosi← T. Kakora

69'

Mbhazima Rikhotso

69'

Mbhazima Rikhotso

73'

M. Sikhosana← M. Ndlovu

73'

J. Clifford← S. Sithole

86'

Ntandoyenkosi Nkosi

87'

V. Letsoalo← J. Zindoga

87'

N. Mgaga← M. Mbunjana

90'

Katekani Mhlongo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MarumoTS

Overview

39%Possession61%

10Total Shots13

6Corners5

16Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots13

2On Target6

6Off Target6

2Blocked1

8Inside Box10

2Outside Box3

Passing

39%Possession61%

304Total Passes477

217Accurate Passes383

71%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0