TS Galaxy 1–2 Marumo Gallants: Result & Stats

TS Galaxy

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Marumo Gallants

Victor Letsoalo 67'

Daniel Msendami 56'

Masindi Nemtajela 2'

3/30/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 19Mbombela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

TS Galaxy48%

×Draw29%

Marumo Gallants24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TS GalaxyExpected goals in this matchMarumo Gallants

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.82

TS Galaxy

1.30

Marumo Gallants

0.82

TS Galaxy creates 59% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 76 away

1.15

creates per match

0.72

0.93

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

TS Galaxy

1.15

Marumo Gallants

0.72

allows per match

TS Galaxy

0.93

Marumo Gallants

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TS Galaxy+0.00on par

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TS Galaxy ↓

Marumo Gallants →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

TS Galaxy or draw

76%

TS Galaxy or Marumo Gallants

71%

Draw or Marumo Gallants

52%

Winning margin

TS Galaxy wins by 2+

22%

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

TS Galaxy 1+ goals

73%

TS Galaxy 2+ goals

37%

TS Galaxy 3+ goals

14%

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

56%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

20%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

TS Galaxy (draw refunded)

67%

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TS Galaxy at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 89 matches

Marumo Gallants away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TS Galaxy attack 1.15 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Marumo Gallants attack 0.72 + TS Galaxy defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

TS Galaxy scores more

48%

level

29%

Marumo Gallants scores more

24%

TS Galaxy at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "TS Galaxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Daniel Msendami

Marumo Gallants · M

7.7

Match Events

2'

Masindi Nemtajela

43'

Daniel Akpeyi

46'

Puso Dithejane← Marks Munyai

49'

Kamogelo Sebelebele

56'

Daniel Msendami↳ Mlungisi Khumalo

57'

Victor Letsoalo← Sphesihle Maduna

66'

Nhlanhla Mgaga← Sphiwe Mahlangu

67'

Victor Letsoalo↳ Puso Dithejane

67'

McBeth Mahlangu← Mlungisi Mbunjana

68'

Kenneth Nthatheni← Mpambaniso Monde

68'

Dino Ndlovu← Mlungisi Khumalo

72'

Damir Šovšić← Mpho Mvelase

77'

Obarate Shaun Morgan← Kamohelo Mahlatsi

80'

Obarate Shaun Morgan

89'

Thapelo Mokobodi← Trevor Mathiane

89'

Phathutshedzo Nange← Daniel Msendami

90+3'

Thapelo Mokobodi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TSMarumo

Overview

69%Possession31%

12Total Shots9

5Corners5

13Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots9

2On Target5

6Off Target3

4Blocked1

5Inside Box8

7Outside Box1

Passing

69%Possession31%

544Total Passes234

460Accurate Passes162

85%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1