TS Galaxy 0–2 Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

TS Galaxy

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

T. Rakhale 82'

B. Theron 42'

4/10/2021

Premier Soccer League · Round 17Emirates Airline Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

TS Galaxy48%

×Draw29%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TS GalaxyExpected goals in this matchTshakhuma Madzivhadila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.82

TS Galaxy

1.30

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

0.82

TS Galaxy creates 59% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 76 away

1.15

creates per match

0.72

0.93

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

TS Galaxy

1.15

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

0.72

allows per match

TS Galaxy

0.93

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TS Galaxy+0.00on par

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TS Galaxy ↓

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

TS Galaxy or draw

76%

TS Galaxy or Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

71%

Draw or Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

52%

Winning margin

TS Galaxy wins by 2+

22%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

TS Galaxy 1+ goals

73%

TS Galaxy 2+ goals

37%

TS Galaxy 3+ goals

14%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1+ goals

56%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 2+ goals

20%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

TS Galaxy (draw refunded)

67%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TS Galaxy at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 89 matches

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TS Galaxy attack 1.15 + Tshakhuma Madzivhadila defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila attack 0.72 + TS Galaxy defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

TS Galaxy scores more

48%

level

29%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila scores more

24%

TS Galaxy at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "TS Galaxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

40'

42'

51'

61'

K. Shozi← M. Phohlongo

61'

L. Mokoena← M. Munyai

67'

Celimpilo Ngema

67'

M. Timm← C. Ngema

80'

F. Badenhorst← B. Aubaas

80'

E. Seedat← L. Mbatha

81'

T. Rakhale← T. Rantie

82'

T. Rakhale↳ T. Mnyamane

87'

J. Malongoane← B. Theron

Possession

Shots

Statistics

TSTshakhuma

Overview

64%Possession36%

3Total Shots4

5Corners5

9Fouls8

Shots

3Total Shots4

1On Target3

2Off Target1

Passing

64%Possession36%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

5Offsides1