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Tromso vs Start — Eliteserien 2026

Tromso
Tromso
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Start
Start
M. Bakenga 86'
S. Wangberg 65' (OG)
H. Shala 41'
10/21/2018EliteserienEliteserien · Round 26Alfheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Tromso53%
×Draw24%
Start23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tromso
1.73
Start
1.05

Tromso creates 65% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 8 away

creates per match

Tromso
1.64
Start
0.90

allows per match

Tromso
1.21
Start
1.82

finishing

Tromso+0.00on par
Start+0.10scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Start →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tromso or draw
77%
Tromso or Start
76%
Draw or Start
47%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+
29%
Start wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals
82%
Tromso 2+ goals
52%
Tromso 3+ goals
25%
Start 1+ goals
65%
Start 2+ goals
28%
Start 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)
70%
Start (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Start away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.82 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.64 + Start defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Start attack 0.90 + Tromso defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tromso scores more
53%
level
24%
Start scores more
23%

Tromso at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Morten PedersenTromsoTromso · M
8.5

Match Events

10'
Damion Lowe
41'
H. Shala↳ T. Christensen
55'
Simen Wangberg
59'
Herolind Shala
61'
M. Bringaker← A. Akinyemi
65'
S. WangbergOwn goal
75'
Afeez Aremu Olalekan
77'
Erlend Segberg
78'
S. Grönli← M. Ingebrigtsen
79'
Morten Gamst Pedersen
85'
N. Sandberg← T. Christensen
86'
M. Bakenga↳ S. Grönli
90+4'
H. Robstad← H. Shala

Possession

66%Tromso

Shots

16Tromso

Pass accuracy

53%Tromso

Statistics

TromsoStart
Overview
66%Possession34%
16Total Shots7
9Corners3
14Fouls25
Shots
16Total Shots7
4On Target1
5Off Target6
7Blocked0
12Inside Box5
4Outside Box2
Passing
66%Possession34%
544Total Passes277
431Accurate Passes195
79%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls25
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Tromso vs Start

Start beat Tromso 2-1 in Eliteserien on October 21, 2018.

Goals: H. Shala (41'), S. Wangberg (65' o.g.), M. Bakenga (86').

Tromso controlled possession (66%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at Alfheim in Tromso.