Start 1–1 Tromso: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Start

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tromso

E. Segberg 75'

J. Hjerto-Dahl 33'

5/3/2026

Eliteserien · Round 7Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Start38%

×Draw25%

Tromso37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StartExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.40

Start

1.43

Tromso

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 24 away

1.33

creates per match

1.39

1.42

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Start

1.33

Tromso

1.39

allows per match

Start

1.42

Tromso

1.53

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Start-0.33scores less

Tromso-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Start or draw

63%

Start or Tromso

75%

Draw or Tromso

62%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+

18%

Tromso wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals

76%

Start 2+ goals

42%

Start 3+ goals

17%

Tromso 1+ goals

75%

Tromso 2+ goals

41%

Tromso 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)

51%

Tromso (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.42 · 6 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.53 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 1.33 + Tromso defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tromso attack 1.39 + Start defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Start scores more

38%

level

25%

Tromso scores more

37%

Start at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

E. Segberg

Start · M

8.3

Match Events

23'

Mikael Ugland

33'

Jens Hjertø-Dahl

33'

J. Hjerto-Dahl↳ T. Guddal

46'

Erlend Segberg

58'

D. Braut← T. Nyhammer

69'

F. Palerud← S. Griesbeck

69'

J. Ampofo← J. Cornelius

75'

I. Vadebu← L. Cornic

75'

E. Segberg↳ T. Strannegard

77'

M. Soomets← M. Ugland

77'

S. Mvoue← E. Schulze

86'

S. Innvaer← A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd

89'

J. Norheim← H. Lorentzen

90+4'

Erlend Dahl Reitan

90+2'

Isak Vadebu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StartTromso

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots6

0.92Expected Goals (xG)0.43

3Corners2

13Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots6

3On Target2

9Off Target3

1Blocked1

8Inside Box4

5Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

511Total Passes447

399Accurate Passes334

78%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-0.75Goals Prevented-0.75

Discipline

13Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Start vs Tromso

Start and Tromso drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on May 3, 2026.

Goals: J. Hjerto-Dahl (33'), E. Segberg (75').

Start controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.

Start vs Tromso — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Start vs Tromso