Start 4–1 Tromso: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Start

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Tromso

A. Aremu 90+1'

E. Käck 61'

K. Kabran 7'

Kristján Finnbogason 6'

Morten Pedersen 90'

3/11/2018

Eliteserien · Round 1Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Start39%

×Draw25%

Tromso36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StartExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.40

Start

1.47

Tromso

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 26 away

1.33

creates per match

1.39

1.42

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Start

1.33

Tromso

1.39

allows per match

Start

1.42

Tromso

1.61

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Start-0.33scores less

Tromso-0.01on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Start or draw

64%

Start or Tromso

75%

Draw or Tromso

61%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+

19%

Tromso wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals

77%

Start 2+ goals

43%

Start 3+ goals

18%

Tromso 1+ goals

75%

Tromso 2+ goals

41%

Tromso 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)

52%

Tromso (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.42 · 6 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.61 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 1.33 + Tromso defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.47

Tromso attack 1.39 + Start defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Start scores more

39%

level

25%

Tromso scores more

36%

Start at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

K. Kabran

Start · F

8.9

Match Events

6'

Kristján Finnbogason

7'

K. Kabran↳ Kristján Finnbogason

13'

Simen Wangberg

22'

Isaac Twum

34'

Henrik Robstad

43'

Christian Landu-Landu

46'

A. Hadzic← I. Twum

61'

E. Käck↳ K. Kabran

68'

E. Børufsen← A. Sigurdarson

71'

S. Vuk← M. Bakenga

71'

E. Samb← L. Nilsen

75'

Tobias Christensen

80'

L. Salvesen← Kristján Finnbogason

90'

Morten Pedersen↳ G. Åsen

90+1'

A. Aremu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StartTromso

Overview

51%Possession49%

22Total Shots9

5Corners6

19Fouls16

Shots

22Total Shots9

8On Target3

11Off Target3

3Blocked3

10Inside Box6

12Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

435Total Passes404

373Accurate Passes328

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Eliteserien: Start 4–1 Tromso

Start beat Tromso 4-1 in Eliteserien on March 11, 2018.

Goals: Kristján Finnbogason (6'), K. Kabran (7'), E. Käck (61'), Morten Pedersen (90'), A. Aremu (90+1').

Start controlled possession (51%) and registered 22 shots to 9.

The match was played at Sør Arena in Kristiansand.

Start vs Tromso — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Start 4–1 Tromso