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Tromso vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Tromso
Tromso
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Molde
Molde
T. Nyhammer 90'
I. Vadebu 80'
5/10/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 8Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Tromso43%
×Draw25%
Molde31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tromso
1.51
Molde
1.25

Tromso creates 21% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

creates per match

Tromso
1.69
Molde
1.38

allows per match

Tromso
1.13
Molde
1.33

finishing

Tromso+0.06on par
Molde+0.02on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Molde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tromso or draw
69%
Tromso or Molde
75%
Draw or Molde
57%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+
21%
Molde wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals
78%
Tromso 2+ goals
44%
Tromso 3+ goals
19%
Molde 1+ goals
71%
Molde 2+ goals
36%
Molde 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)
58%
Molde (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

Molde away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.33 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.69 + Molde defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.51

Molde attack 1.38 + Tromso defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tromso scores more
43%
level
25%
Molde scores more
31%

Tromso at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
I. VadebuTromsoTromso · D
9.5

Match Events

27'
David Edvardsson
57'
C. Zady← O. Spiten-Nysaeter
57'
T. Kone-Doherty← S. Granaas
59'
Albert Posiadała
71'
T. Nyhammer← J. Hjerto-Dahl
73'
J. Husebo← M. Tonnessen
80'
I. Vadebu↳ R. Jenssen
81'
V. Bender← F. Gulbrandsen
81'
J. Christensen← V. Hoff
84'
D. Braut← H. Larsen
88'
Emil Breivik
90+7'
Alexander Warneryd
90+1'
I. Amundsen← S. Kabini
90'
T. Nyhammer↳ D. Braut

Possession

44%Tromso

Shots

18Tromso

Pass accuracy

50%Tromso

Statistics

TromsoMolde
Overview
44%Possession56%
18Total Shots14
1.98Expected Goals (xG)1.16
5Corners4
11Fouls8
Shots
18Total Shots14
6On Target3
7Off Target5
5Blocked6
12Inside Box11
6Outside Box3
Passing
44%Possession56%
461Total Passes590
385Accurate Passes500
84%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
0.09Goals Prevented0.09
Discipline
11Fouls8
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Tromso vs Molde

Tromso beat Molde 2-0 in Eliteserien on May 10, 2026.

Goals: I. Vadebu (80'), T. Nyhammer (90').

Molde controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 18.

The match was played at Romssa Arena in Tromso.