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Tromso vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Tromso
Tromso
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Molde
Molde
M. Løvik 61'
K. Eriksen 33'
6/28/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 12Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Tromso42%
×Draw25%
Molde33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tromso
1.48
Molde
1.27

Tromso creates 17% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

creates per match

Tromso
1.65
Molde
1.39

allows per match

Tromso
1.15
Molde
1.30

finishing

Tromso+0.03on par
Molde+0.03on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Molde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tromso or draw
67%
Tromso or Molde
75%
Draw or Molde
58%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+
20%
Molde wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals
77%
Tromso 2+ goals
43%
Tromso 3+ goals
19%
Molde 1+ goals
72%
Molde 2+ goals
36%
Molde 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)
56%
Molde (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.15 · 25 matches

Molde away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.30 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.65 + Molde defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.48

Molde attack 1.39 + Tromso defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tromso scores more
42%
level
25%
Molde scores more
33%

Tromso at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
M. LøvikMoldeMolde · M
8.3

Match Events

6'
V. Lund← A. Hagelskjær
16'
Mathias Fjortoft Lovik
33'
K. Eriksen↳ M. Linnes
61'
M. Løvik
70'
L. Nilsen← Y. Paintsil
70'
E. Hestad← M. Kaasa
77'
F. Winther← R. Norheim
78'
Albert Posiadała
82'
A. Olanare← M. Eikrem
86'
M. Johnsgård← J. Romsaas
86'
S. Opsahl← J. Hjertø-Dahl

Possession

51%Tromso

Shots

8Tromso

Pass accuracy

50%Tromso

Statistics

TromsoMolde
Overview
51%Possession49%
8Total Shots13
0.59Expected Goals (xG)1.54
5Corners0
7Fouls8
Shots
8Total Shots13
2On Target7
3Off Target4
3Blocked2
6Inside Box10
2Outside Box3
Passing
51%Possession49%
584Total Passes572
493Accurate Passes483
84%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls8
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Tromso 0 – 2 Molde

Molde beat Tromso 2-0 in Eliteserien on June 28, 2024.

Goals: K. Eriksen (33'), M. Løvik (61').

Tromso controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 13.

The match was played at Romssa Arena in Tromsø.