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Molde vs Tromso — Eliteserien 2026

Molde
Molde
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tromso
Tromso
H. Stenevik 73' (pen)
F. Gulbrandsen 27' (pen)
8/24/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 19Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Molde47%
×Draw24%
Tromso29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde
1.71
Tromso
1.28

Molde creates 34% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Molde
1.97
Tromso
1.39

allows per match

Molde
1.17
Tromso
1.46

finishing

Molde+0.20scores more
Tromso-0.17scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Tromso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Molde or draw
71%
Molde or Tromso
76%
Draw or Tromso
53%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+
25%
Tromso wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals
82%
Molde 2+ goals
51%
Molde 3+ goals
24%
Tromso 1+ goals
72%
Tromso 2+ goals
37%
Tromso 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)
62%
Tromso (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.46 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 1.97 + Tromso defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.71

Tromso attack 1.39 + Molde defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Molde scores more
47%
level
24%
Tromso scores more
29%

Molde at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
B. RisaMoldeMolde · D
7.6

Match Events

27'
F. GulbrandsenPenalty
31'
Ruben Jenssen
39'
Vetle Skjaervik
45+3'
Jacob Karlstrøm
46'
Ieltsin Camoes← D. Braut
46'
A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd← R. Norheim
54'
H. Stenevik← M. Linnes
60'
Samukelo Kabini
64'
E. Hestad← F. Gulbrandsen
64'
M. Eikrem← C. Zady
72'
L. O. Larsen← J. Hjerto-Dahl
73'
H. StenevikPenalty
81'
C. Oyvann← M. Daehli
81'
G. Nyheim← O. Spiten-Nysaeter

Possession

44%Molde

Shots

6Molde

Pass accuracy

49%Molde

Statistics

MoldeTromso
Overview
44%Possession56%
6Total Shots12
1.80Expected Goals (xG)0.65
4Corners9
12Fouls19
Shots
6Total Shots12
3On Target2
2Off Target5
1Blocked5
4Inside Box6
2Outside Box6
Passing
44%Possession56%
415Total Passes523
339Accurate Passes453
82%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls19
2Yellow Cards2

Molde 2 – 0 Tromso

Molde beat Tromso 2-0 in Eliteserien on August 24, 2025.

Goals: F. Gulbrandsen (27' pen), H. Stenevik (73' pen).

Tromso controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.