Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Molde vs Tromso — Eliteserien 2026

Molde
Molde
FT
5 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Tromso
Tromso
K. Eriksen 90+2', 24'
O. Brynhildsen 76'
H. Stenevik 73' (pen)
M. Eikrem 6'
D. Edvardsson 90+4'
L. Cornic 85', 56'
9/28/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 24Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Molde49%
×Draw23%
Tromso28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde
1.77
Tromso
1.28

Molde creates 38% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

creates per match

Molde
2.02
Tromso
1.39

allows per match

Molde
1.18
Tromso
1.53

finishing

Molde+0.27scores more
Tromso-0.10scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Tromso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Molde or draw
72%
Molde or Tromso
77%
Draw or Tromso
51%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+
27%
Tromso wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals
83%
Molde 2+ goals
53%
Molde 3+ goals
26%
Tromso 1+ goals
72%
Tromso 2+ goals
37%
Tromso 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)
64%
Tromso (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.18 · 24 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.53 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 2.02 + Tromso defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

Tromso attack 1.39 + Molde defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Molde scores more
49%
level
23%
Tromso scores more
28%

Molde at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. EikremMoldeMolde · F
9.2

Match Events

6'
M. Eikrem↳ M. Møller Dæhli
24'
K. Eriksen↳ M. Kaasa
46'
J. Romsaas← K. Antonsen
56'
L. Cornic
65'
E. Breivik← M. Kaasa
73'
M. Linnes← H. Stenevik
73'
H. StenevikPenalty
74'
V. Lund← M. Bjørnbak
76'
O. Brynhildsen↳ M. Eikrem
78'
F. Ihler← M. Eikrem
78'
M. Enggård← M. Møller Dæhli
78'
F. Christensen← L. Nordås
79'
D. Edvardsson← J. Hjertø-Dahl
79'
Y. Paintsil← R. Norheim
82'
I. Vådebu← M. Barry
85'
L. Cornic↳ J. Romsaas
90+2'
K. Eriksen↳ E. Breivik
90+4'
D. Edvardsson

Possession

55%Molde

Shots

22Molde

Pass accuracy

50%Molde

Statistics

MoldeTromso
Overview
55%Possession45%
22Total Shots8
3.19Expected Goals (xG)1.33
4Corners0
5Fouls11
Shots
22Total Shots8
10On Target5
8Off Target2
4Blocked1
20Inside Box6
2Outside Box2
Passing
55%Possession45%
583Total Passes491
496Accurate Passes419
85%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
5Fouls11
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Molde vs Tromso

Molde beat Tromso 5-3 in Eliteserien on September 28, 2024.

Goals: M. Eikrem (6'), K. Eriksen (24', 90+2'), L. Cornic (56', 85'), H. Stenevik (73' pen), O. Brynhildsen (76'), D. Edvardsson (90+4').

Molde controlled possession (55%) and registered 22 shots to 8.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.