Tromso 0–0 Lillestrom: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Tromso

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lillestrom

4/15/2026

Eliteserien · Round 15Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Tromso47%

×Draw23%

Lillestrom30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TromsoExpected goals in this matchLillestrom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.35

Tromso

1.76

Lillestrom

1.35

Tromso creates 30% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 16 away

1.79

creates per match

1.58

1.11

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Tromso

1.79

Lillestrom

1.58

allows per match

Tromso

1.11

Lillestrom

1.73

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

Tromso-0.01on par

Lillestrom-0.45scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Lillestrom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Tromso or draw

70%

Tromso or Lillestrom

77%

Draw or Lillestrom

53%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+

25%

Lillestrom wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals

83%

Tromso 2+ goals

52%

Tromso 3+ goals

26%

Lillestrom 1+ goals

74%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

39%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)

61%

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.11 · 32 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.73 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.79 + Lillestrom defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.76

Lillestrom attack 1.58 + Tromso defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tromso scores more

47%

level

23%

Lillestrom scores more

30%

Tromso at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

P. Dahlberg

Lillestrom · G

9.5

Match Events

26'

Ylldren Ibrahimaj

46'

H. Larsen← L. O. Larsen

68'

C. Jebara← S. Drammeh

68'

K. Arierhi← T. Olsen

74'

Leo Cornic

74'

Yaw Paintsil

80'

Markus KarlsbakkGoal cancelled

82'

V. Skjaervik← L. Cornic

82'

S. Innvaer← A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd

88'

L. Alperud← Felix Va

89'

G. Nyheim← E. Kitolano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TromsoLillestrom

Overview

60%Possession40%

12Total Shots10

2.15Expected Goals (xG)1.38

6Corners5

19Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots10

6On Target6

5Off Target1

1Blocked3

8Inside Box8

4Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

638Total Passes417

567Accurate Passes327

89%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

6Saves6

1.26Goals Prevented1.26

Discipline

19Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2