Tromso 1–2 Lillestrom: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Tromso

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lillestrom

T. Guddal 67'

T. Lehne Olsen 51'

K. Antonsen 20' (OG)

6/2/2024

Eliteserien · Round 11Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Tromso47%

×Draw24%

Lillestrom29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TromsoExpected goals in this matchLillestrom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.31

Tromso

1.72

Lillestrom

1.31

Tromso creates 31% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

1.76

creates per match

1.52

1.09

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Tromso

1.76

Lillestrom

1.52

allows per match

Tromso

1.09

Lillestrom

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Tromso+0.00on par

Lillestrom-0.34scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Lillestrom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tromso or draw

71%

Tromso or Lillestrom

76%

Draw or Lillestrom

53%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+

25%

Lillestrom wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals

82%

Tromso 2+ goals

51%

Tromso 3+ goals

25%

Lillestrom 1+ goals

73%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

38%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)

62%

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.68 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.76 + Lillestrom defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.72

Lillestrom attack 1.52 + Tromso defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tromso scores more

47%

level

24%

Lillestrom scores more

29%

Tromso at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

T. Lehne Olsen

Lillestrom · F

8.2

Match Events

20'

K. AntonsenOwn goal

51'

T. Lehne Olsen↳ M. Lundemo

56'

L. Nordås← A. Jenssen

65'

H. Skogvold← T. Lehne Olsen

67'

T. Guddal↳ K. Antonsen

72'

Runar Robinsonn Norheim

72'

S. Foss← E. Lucky

75'

Tobias Kvalvagnes Guddal

80'

J. Robertsen← Y. Paintsil

80'

F. Winther← J. Hjertø-Dahl

88'

M. Johnsgård← V. Erlien

88'

I. Vik← V. Skjærvik

90+3'

Mads Christiansen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TromsoLillestrom

Overview

57%Possession43%

7Total Shots7

0.85Expected Goals (xG)0.49

4Corners7

14Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots7

4On Target2

2Off Target2

1Blocked3

5Inside Box5

2Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

524Total Passes392

453Accurate Passes320

86%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Tromso vs Lillestrom

Lillestrom beat Tromso 2-1 in Eliteserien on June 2, 2024.

Goals: K. Antonsen (20' o.g.), T. Lehne Olsen (51'), T. Guddal (67').

Tromso controlled possession (57%) and registered 7 shots to 7.

The match was played at Romssa Arena in Tromsø.

Tromso vs Lillestrom — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Tromso vs Lillestrom