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Tromso vs Lillestrom — Eliteserien 2026

Tromso
Tromso
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lillestrom
Lillestrom
Y. Paintsil 89'
V. Erlien 72' (pen)
J. Gundersen 66'
E. Garnås 45+1'
8/6/2023EliteserienEliteserien · Round 17Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Tromso46%
×Draw23%
Lillestrom30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tromso
1.74
Lillestrom
1.37

Tromso creates 27% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 16 away

creates per match

Tromso
1.75
Lillestrom
1.58

allows per match

Tromso
1.16
Lillestrom
1.73

finishing

Tromso+0.05on par
Lillestrom-0.45scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Lillestrom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tromso or draw
70%
Tromso or Lillestrom
77%
Draw or Lillestrom
54%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+
25%
Lillestrom wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals
82%
Tromso 2+ goals
52%
Tromso 3+ goals
25%
Lillestrom 1+ goals
75%
Lillestrom 2+ goals
40%
Lillestrom 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)
60%
Lillestrom (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.16 · 30 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.73 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.75 + Lillestrom defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.74

Lillestrom attack 1.58 + Tromso defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tromso scores more
46%
level
23%
Lillestrom scores more
30%

Tromso at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
S. OpsahlTromsoTromso · M
7.9

Match Events

20'
P. Slørdahl← L. Ranger
22'
Jostein Gundersen
24'
Tobias Hammer Svendsen
45+1'
E. Garnås↳ V. Dragsnes
52'
Espen Bjornsen Garnas
66'
J. Gundersen↳ S. Opsahl
69'
L. Nordås← E. Diouf
72'
V. ErlienPenalty
75'
H. Skogvold← T. Svendsen
75'
M. Lundemo← Y. Ibrahimaj
82'
J. Hjertø-Dahl← J. Romsaas
83'
O. Henriksrud← E. Garnås
89'
Y. Paintsil↳ L. Nordås
90'
J. Robertsen← Y. Paintsil
90'
C. Psyché← A. Jenssen

Possession

52%Tromso

Shots

19Tromso

Pass accuracy

50%Tromso

Statistics

TromsoLillestrom
Overview
52%Possession48%
19Total Shots2
2.10Expected Goals (xG)0.54
6Corners1
10Fouls11
Shots
19Total Shots2
9On Target2
5Off Target0
5Blocked0
10Inside Box1
9Outside Box1
Passing
52%Possession48%
529Total Passes486
446Accurate Passes411
84%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Tromso vs Lillestrom

Tromso beat Lillestrom 3-1 in Eliteserien on August 6, 2023.

Goals: E. Garnås (45+1'), J. Gundersen (66'), V. Erlien (72' pen), Y. Paintsil (89').

Tromso controlled possession (52%) and registered 19 shots to 2.

The match was played at Romssa Arena in Tromsø.