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Tromso vs Ham-Kam — Eliteserien 2026

Tromso
Tromso
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
Ieltsin Camoes 47'
9/21/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 22Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Tromso45%
×Draw25%
Ham-Kam30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tromso
1.59
Ham-Kam
1.26

Tromso creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Tromso
1.45
Ham-Kam
1.43

allows per match

Tromso
1.09
Ham-Kam
1.73

finishing

Tromso+0.45scores more
Ham-Kam-0.30scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Ham-Kam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tromso or draw
70%
Tromso or Ham-Kam
75%
Draw or Ham-Kam
55%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+
23%
Ham-Kam wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals
80%
Tromso 2+ goals
47%
Tromso 3+ goals
21%
Ham-Kam 1+ goals
72%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
36%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)
60%
Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 10 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.73 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.45 + Ham-Kam defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ham-Kam attack 1.43 + Tromso defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tromso scores more
45%
level
25%
Ham-Kam scores more
30%

Tromso at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
T. GuddalTromsoTromso
8.2

Match Events

42'
Tobias Kvalvagnes Guddal
47'
Ieltsin Camoes↳ R. Jenssen
54'
Anton Ekeroth
61'
Ieltsin Camoes
61'
V. Jonsson← A. Potur
61'
M. Johnsgard← G. Simenstad
65'
V. Erlien← L. O. Larsen
65'
D. Braut← Ieltsin Camoes
70'
M. Mawa← K. Lien
80'
A. Jenssen← A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd
90+2'
A. Mikkelsen← D. Edvardsson

Possession

56%Tromso

Shots

14Tromso

Pass accuracy

51%Tromso

Statistics

TromsoHam-Kam
Overview
56%Possession44%
14Total Shots13
0.61Expected Goals (xG)1.08
3Corners4
12Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots13
2On Target2
8Off Target7
4Blocked4
10Inside Box9
4Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
571Total Passes436
499Accurate Passes362
87%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Tromso 1 – 0 Ham-Kam

Tromso beat Ham-Kam 1-0 in Eliteserien on September 21, 2025.

Goals: Ieltsin Camoes (47').

Tromso controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Romssa Arena in Tromso.