Tromso 3–3 Ham-Kam: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Tromso

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Ham-Kam

V. Erlien 67' (pen), 30' (pen)

L. Nordås 51'

J. Norheim 90+4'

M. Mawa 25', 23'

11/3/2024

Eliteserien · Round 27Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Tromso48%

×Draw24%

Ham-Kam29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TromsoExpected goals in this matchHam-Kam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.29

Tromso

1.73

Ham-Kam

1.29

Tromso creates 34% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.55

creates per match

1.48

1.10

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Tromso

1.55

Ham-Kam

1.48

allows per match

Tromso

1.10

Ham-Kam

1.90

+0.45scores more than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Tromso+0.45scores more

Ham-Kam-0.19scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Ham-Kam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tromso or draw

71%

Tromso or Ham-Kam

76%

Draw or Ham-Kam

52%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+

26%

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals

82%

Tromso 2+ goals

52%

Tromso 3+ goals

25%

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

72%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

37%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)

62%

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.10 · 9 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.90 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.55 + Ham-Kam defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ham-Kam attack 1.48 + Tromso defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tromso scores more

48%

level

24%

Ham-Kam scores more

29%

Tromso at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

V. Erlien

Tromso · F

8.3

Match Events

23'

M. Mawa↳ W. Kurtović

25'

M. Mawa↳ G. Simenstad

30'

V. ErlienPenalty

49'

Brynjar Ingi Bjarnason

51'

L. Nordås↳ K. Antonsen

67'

V. ErlienPenalty

72'

K. Onsrud← A. Ekeroth

72'

H. Udahl← M. Johnsgård

73'

Vetle Skjaervik

83'

J. Romsaas← L. Nordås

84'

Y. Paintsil← L. Cornic

84'

J. Norheim← M. Mawa

90+2'

Yaw Paintsil

90+4'

J. Norheim↳ W. Kurtović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TromsoHam-Kam

Overview

64%Possession36%

13Total Shots17

2.82Expected Goals (xG)1.79

11Corners4

6Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots17

4On Target6

1Off Target6

8Blocked5

8Inside Box13

5Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

566Total Passes326

478Accurate Passes248

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1

Eliteserien: Tromso 3–3 Ham-Kam

Tromso and Ham-Kam drew 3-3 in Eliteserien on November 3, 2024.

Goals: M. Mawa (23', 25'), V. Erlien (30' pen, 67' pen), L. Nordås (51'), J. Norheim (90+4').

Tromso controlled possession (64%) and registered 13 shots to 17.

The match was played at Romssa Arena in Tromsø.

Tromso vs Ham-Kam — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Tromso 3–3 Ham-Kam