Ham-Kam 1–3 Tromso: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Ham-Kam

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Tromso

A. Roaldsoy 50'

Ieltsin Camoes 47'

D. Edvardsson 26'

V. Erlien 21'

6/22/2025

Eliteserien · Round 10Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Ham-Kam41%

×Draw24%

Tromso35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ham-KamExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.41

Ham-Kam

1.55

Tromso

1.41

Ham-Kam creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.64

creates per match

1.11

1.70

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Ham-Kam

1.64

Tromso

1.11

allows per match

Ham-Kam

1.70

Tromso

1.47

+0.50scores more than expected

finishing

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

Ham-Kam+0.50scores more

Tromso-0.44scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ham-Kam ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ham-Kam or draw

65%

Ham-Kam or Tromso

76%

Draw or Tromso

59%

Winning margin

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

20%

Tromso wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

79%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

46%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

20%

Tromso 1+ goals

76%

Tromso 2+ goals

41%

Tromso 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

54%

Tromso (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ham-Kam at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.70 · 7 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.47 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ham-Kam attack 1.64 + Tromso defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.55

Tromso attack 1.11 + Ham-Kam defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ham-Kam scores more

41%

level

24%

Tromso scores more

35%

Ham-Kam at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ham-Kam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

D. Edvardsson

Tromso · M

8.2

Match Events

16'

Ieltsin Camoes← A. Mikkelsen

21'

V. Erlien↳ D. Edvardsson

26'

D. Edvardsson↳ L. Cornic

45+2'

Ieltsin Camoes

47'

Ieltsin Camoes↳ R. Jenssen

50'

A. Roaldsoy↳ T. Soras

56'

F. Sjolstad← M. Mawa

65'

Abubacarr Kinteh

72'

W. Osnes-Ringen← S. Nilsen

72'

Y. Paintsil← R. Norheim

72'

D. Braut←

88'

K. Antonsen← J. Hjerto-Dahl

90+3'

D. de Ornelas de Conno← V. Jonsson

90+3'

A. C. Cole← K. Lien

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ham-KamTromso

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots6

1.11Expected Goals (xG)1.14

6Corners2

11Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots6

4On Target4

3Off Target0

4Blocked2

6Inside Box4

5Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

462Total Passes404

392Accurate Passes335

85%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2

Eliteserien: Ham-Kam 1–3 Tromso

Tromso beat Ham-Kam 3-1 in Eliteserien on June 22, 2025.

Goals: V. Erlien (21'), D. Edvardsson (26'), Ieltsin Camoes (47'), A. Roaldsoy (50').

Ham-Kam controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Briskeby Arena in Hamar.

Ham-Kam vs Tromso — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Ham-Kam 1–3 Tromso