Tromso 2–0 Ham-Kam: Result & Stats

Tromso

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ham-Kam

H. Larsen 84'

Ieltsin Camoes 17'

3/22/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tromso54%

×Draw26%

Ham-Kam20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TromsoExpected goals in this matchHam-Kam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.79

Tromso

1.50

Ham-Kam

0.79

Tromso creates 90% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.50

creates per match

1.25

0.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Tromso

1.50

Ham-Kam

1.25

allows per match

Tromso

0.33

Ham-Kam

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tromso+0.00on par

Ham-Kam+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Ham-Kam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tromso or draw

80%

Tromso or Ham-Kam

74%

Draw or Ham-Kam

46%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+

28%

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals

78%

Tromso 2+ goals

44%

Tromso 3+ goals

19%

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

55%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

19%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)

73%

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.50 + Ham-Kam defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ham-Kam attack 1.25 + Tromso defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tromso scores more

54%

level

26%

Ham-Kam scores more

20%

Tromso at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Ieltsin Camoes

84'

H. Larsen

Tromso

Ham-Kam

12

4

26

23

5

77

11

18

21

10

19

1

2

4

5

30

7

20

11

8

9

⚽

Camoes

19

⚽

Larsen

Manager: Jørgen Vik

Tromso substitutes

LauvliThomasRobertsenKoskelaKintehChristensenMikkelsenKleiva

Manager: Thomas Harald Myhre

Ham-Kam substitutes

NilssonLarsenNilsenOsnes-RingenPoturKirkevold

Match Recap: Tromso vs Ham-Kam

Tromso beat Ham-Kam 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on March 22, 2025.

Goals: Ieltsin Camoes (17'), H. Larsen (84').

The match was played at Romssa Arena in Tromsø.

Tromso vs Ham-Kam — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tromso vs Ham-Kam