Trat FC 2–2 Lamphun Warrior: Result & Stats

Trat FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lamphun Warrior

Jorge Fellipe 81'

S. Ratniyom 20'

Mohammed Osman 70'

Negueba 24'

5/18/2024

League #296 · Round 29Trat Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Trat FC49%

×Draw22%

Lamphun Warrior29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trat FCExpected goals in this matchLamphun Warrior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.44

Trat FC

1.94

Lamphun Warrior

1.44

Trat FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

1.38

creates per match

1.33

1.54

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Trat FC

1.38

Lamphun Warrior

1.33

allows per match

Trat FC

1.54

Lamphun Warrior

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Lamphun Warrior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw

71%

Trat FC or Lamphun Warrior

78%

Draw or Lamphun Warrior

51%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+

28%

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals

86%

Trat FC 2+ goals

58%

Trat FC 3+ goals

30%

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals

76%

Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals

42%

Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)

63%

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Lamphun Warrior away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.38 + Lamphun Warrior defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.94

Lamphun Warrior attack 1.33 + Trat FC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Trat FC scores more

49%

level

22%

Lamphun Warrior scores more

29%

Trat FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

Negueba

Lamphun Warrior · M

8.2

Match Events

20'

S. Ratniyom

24'

Negueba↳ Tauã

68'

P. Intanee← B. Tapla

68'

Maung Maung Lwin← S. Chatthong

70'

Mohammed Osman↳ Negueba

77'

R. Janchaichit← P. Jarunai

77'

S. Thongkot← T. Sujarit

77'

P. Phatthaphon← Thitathorn Auksornsri

81'

Jorge Fellipe↳ S. Thongkot

84'

A. Yodsangwal← Negueba

84'

K. Linares← M. Chunuonsee

84'

W. Clowuttiwat← T. Lated

90+3'

R. Whanchuen← D. Horikoshi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TratLamphun

Overview

50%Possession50%

21Total Shots12

4Corners9

9Fouls7

Shots

21Total Shots12

8On Target2

11Off Target7

2Blocked3

12Inside Box8

9Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

392Total Passes394

350Accurate Passes340

89%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls7

1Offsides1