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Lamphun Warrior vs Trat FC — League #296 2026

Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Trat FC
Trat FC
A. Yodsangwal 89'
Dennis Murillo 84'
A. Pumwisat 62'
Mohammed Osman 37' (pen)
C. Buran 30'
L. Cohen 7'
12/24/2023League #296League #296 · Round 15Mae Guang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lamphun Warrior60%
×Draw22%
Trat FC18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lamphun Warrior
1.96
Trat FC
0.97

Lamphun Warrior creates 102% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lamphun Warrior
1.60
Trat FC
1.15

allows per match

Lamphun Warrior
0.80
Trat FC
2.31

finishing

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par
Trat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamphun Warrior ↓

Trat FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lamphun Warrior or draw
82%
Lamphun Warrior or Trat FC
78%
Draw or Trat FC
40%

Winning margin

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
36%
Trat FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
86%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
58%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
31%
Trat FC 1+ goals
62%
Trat FC 2+ goals
25%
Trat FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
77%
Trat FC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamphun Warrior at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Trat FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamphun Warrior attack 1.60 + Trat FC defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.96

Trat FC attack 1.15 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lamphun Warrior scores more
60%
level
22%
Trat FC scores more
18%

Lamphun Warrior at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
Mohammed OsmanLamphun WarriorLamphun Warrior · M
8.7

Match Events

7'
L. Cohen↳ P. Jarunai
18'
W. Sukhuna← S. Srinothai
30'
C. Buran↳ Maung Maung Lwin
31'
Chaiyawat BuranGoal confirmed
31'
Thitawee Aksornsri
35'
Todsapol LatedPenalty confirmed
37'
Mohammed OsmanPenalty
45+3'
Rangsan Wiroonsri
46'
M. Budrak← P. Phatthaphon
55'
Oskari Kekkonen
62'
A. Pumwisat
64'
B. Tapla← O. Kekkonen
64'
N. Sombatyotha← Yashir Islame
64'
R. Whanchuen← Evandro Paulista
70'
Dennis Murillo← S. Chatthong
70'
W. Moonwong← C. Buran
83'
A. Yodsangwal← Maung Maung Lwin
83'
P. Intanee← Tauã
84'
Dennis Murillo↳ A. Yodsangwal
87'
P. Kantanet← P. Jarunai
89'
A. Yodsangwal↳ A. Cissokho
90+5'
Witthaya Moonwong
90+3'
Dennis Murillo

Possession

49%Lamphun

Shots

19Lamphun

Pass accuracy

49%Lamphun

Statistics

LamphunTrat
Overview
49%Possession51%
19Total Shots10
10Corners3
16Fouls7
Shots
19Total Shots10
9On Target1
5Off Target5
5Blocked4
16Inside Box5
3Outside Box5
Passing
49%Possession51%
334Total Passes360
278Accurate Passes309
83%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls7
3Yellow Cards2
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Lamphun Warrior vs Trat FC

Lamphun Warrior beat Trat FC 5-1 in League #296 on December 24, 2023.

Goals: L. Cohen (7'), C. Buran (30'), Mohammed Osman (37' pen), A. Pumwisat (62'), Dennis Murillo (84'), A. Yodsangwal (89').

Trat FC controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 19.

The match was played at Mae Guang Stadium in Lamphun.