Lamphun Warrior 2–5 Trat FC: Result & Stats

Lamphun Warrior

FT

2 – 5

Trat FC

5/1/2019

FA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lamphun Warrior30%

×Draw18%

Trat FC51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lamphun WarriorExpected goals in this matchTrat FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

2.75

Lamphun Warrior

2.13

Trat FC

2.75

Trat FC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

2.13

creates per match

4.00

1.50

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Lamphun Warrior

2.13

Trat FC

4.00

allows per match

Lamphun Warrior

1.50

Trat FC

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Trat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamphun Warrior ↓

Trat FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Lamphun Warrior or draw

49%

Lamphun Warrior or Trat FC

82%

Draw or Trat FC

70%

Winning margin

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+

16%

Trat FC wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals

88%

Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals

63%

Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals

35%

Trat FC 1+ goals

93%

Trat FC 2+ goals

75%

Trat FC 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)

37%

Trat FC (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamphun Warrior at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Trat FC away — creates 4.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamphun Warrior attack 2.13 + Trat FC defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.13

Trat FC attack 4.00 + Lamphun Warrior defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lamphun Warrior scores more

30%

level

18%

Trat FC scores more

51%

Trat FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff