Trat FC 0–1 Lamphun Warrior: Result & Stats

Trat FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lamphun Warrior

Kwon Dae-hee 37'

2/5/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 22Trat Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Trat FC38%

×Draw26%

Lamphun Warrior36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trat FCExpected goals in this matchLamphun Warrior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.30

Trat FC

1.36

Lamphun Warrior

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 17 away

1.78

creates per match

1.59

1.01

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Trat FC

1.78

Lamphun Warrior

1.59

allows per match

Trat FC

1.01

Lamphun Warrior

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Lamphun Warrior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw

64%

Trat FC or Lamphun Warrior

74%

Draw or Lamphun Warrior

62%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+

18%

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals

74%

Trat FC 2+ goals

39%

Trat FC 3+ goals

16%

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals

73%

Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals

37%

Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)

52%

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.01 · 74 matches

Lamphun Warrior away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.78 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.36

Lamphun Warrior attack 1.59 + Trat FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Trat FC scores more

38%

level

26%

Lamphun Warrior scores more

36%

Trat FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Kwon Dae-hee

41'

P. Pongthong← T. Nakarawong

67'

S. Sutisuk← P. Panyanumaporn

67'

I. Marom← P. Limraksa

72'

A. Lahsoh← A. Sunthornphit

72'

R. Rangsiyo← Maung Maung Lwin

89'

T. Ponang← S. Paipromrat

90+2'

K. Premthanakoon← P. Jarunai

90+5'

T. Sripundon← W. Clowuttiwat

Trat

Lamphun

81

Cunningha

41

Cissokho

23

▼

Clowuttiw

19

⚽

Dae-hee

36

Buathong

7

▼

Sunthornp

80

Suárez

22

▼

Paipromra

8

Pumwisat

29

Thales

77

▼

18

4

5

27

9

▼

Limraksa

8

▼

Nakarawon

7

▼

Jarunai

6

▼

17

33

11

Manager: S. Chuayboonchum

41'▲P. Pongthong←▼T. Nakarawong

67'▲S. Sutisuk←▼P. Panyanumaporn

67'▲I. Marom←▼P. Limraksa

90+2'▲K. Premthanakoon←▼P. Jarunai

Trat FC substitutes

14Pongthong10Sutisuk99Marom28Premthanakoon1Buathong3Tun21Manchart39Janchaichit15Thanachartkun

Manager: Wanderley

72'▲A. Lahsoh←▼A. Sunthornphit

72'▲R. Rangsiyo←▼Maung Maung Lwin

89'▲T. Ponang←▼S. Paipromrat

90+5'▲T. Sripundon←▼W. Clowuttiwat

Lamphun Warrior substitutes

10Lahsoh14Rangsiyo17Ponang70Sripundon4Kanuengkid6Deeprasert18Doungsri26Sintupun33Navanit