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Tranmere vs Accrington ST — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
Preview
15:00
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
12/26/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 21Prenton Park
Big match
44%
Tranmere
model favours
44%28%29%
1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Tranmere44%
×Draw28%
Accrington ST29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.33
Accrington ST
1.02

Tranmere creates 30% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.10
Accrington ST
0.79

allows per match

Tranmere
1.25
Accrington ST
1.55

finishing

Tranmere+0.21scores more
Accrington ST-0.23scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
71%
Tranmere or Accrington ST
72%
Draw or Accrington ST
56%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
20%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
74%
Tranmere 2+ goals
38%
Tranmere 3+ goals
15%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
64%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
27%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
60%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.55 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.10 + Accrington ST defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Accrington ST attack 0.79 + Tranmere defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tranmere scores more
44%
level
28%
Accrington ST scores more
29%

Tranmere at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Tranmere
Balanced
Accrington ST
Balanced
50%Possession47%
67%Pass accuracy62%
12.1Shots11.3
1.13xGBiggest gap0.86
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
TranmereAccrington ST

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

2
Tranmere
2
Draws
3
Accrington ST
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 57%
0–11–13–30–11–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Tranmere
WDLWL
ST
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tranmere host Accrington ST

December 26, 2026: Tranmere take on Accrington ST in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tranmere host Accrington ST at Prenton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.