Accrington ST 3–3 Tranmere: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 0

Tranmere

J. Woods 42'

T. Walton 24'

B. Woods 1'

O. Patrick 90+11', 78'

K. Dennis 87'

4/12/2025

League Two · Round 42Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Accrington ST38%

×Draw29%

Tranmere33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.06

Accrington ST

1.16

Tranmere

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

0.93

creates per match

1.18

0.95

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Accrington ST

0.93

Tranmere

1.18

allows per match

Accrington ST

0.95

Tranmere

1.39

+0.57scores more than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Accrington ST+0.57scores more

Tranmere-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

67%

Accrington ST or Tranmere

71%

Draw or Tranmere

62%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

16%

Tranmere wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

69%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

32%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

11%

Tranmere 1+ goals

65%

Tranmere 2+ goals

29%

Tranmere 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

54%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.95 · 8 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.39 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.93 + Tranmere defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.16

Tranmere attack 1.18 + Accrington ST defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Accrington ST scores more

38%

level

29%

Tranmere scores more

33%

Accrington ST at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

O. Patrick

Tranmere · M

8.6

Match Events

1'

B. Woods

24'

T. Walton↳ J. Woods

32'

T. Davies← C. Wood

42'

J. Woods↳ D. Love

46'

K. Morris← C. Merrie

46'

J. Davison← C. Jennings

61'

Kieron Morris

69'

S. Taylor← J. Turnbull

69'

Z. Bradshaw← J. Hawkes

77'

77'

78'

84'

84'

87'

K. Dennis↳ O. Patrick

88'

89'

90+5'

90+12'

90+11'

1 O. Patrick↳ K. Morris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonTranmere

Overview

34%Possession66%

7Total Shots14

0Corners7

14Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots14

3On Target4

4Off Target4

0Blocked6

5Inside Box4

2Outside Box10

Passing

34%Possession66%

221Total Passes421

111Accurate Passes292

50%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2