Accrington ST 1–1 Tranmere: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tranmere

S. Whalley 16'

C. Whitaker 63'

10/28/2025

League Two · Round 4The Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Accrington ST38%

×Draw29%

Tranmere33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.06

Accrington ST

1.16

Tranmere

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

0.93

creates per match

1.18

0.95

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Accrington ST

0.93

Tranmere

1.18

allows per match

Accrington ST

0.95

Tranmere

1.39

+0.57scores more than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Accrington ST+0.57scores more

Tranmere-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

67%

Accrington ST or Tranmere

71%

Draw or Tranmere

62%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

16%

Tranmere wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

69%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

32%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

11%

Tranmere 1+ goals

65%

Tranmere 2+ goals

29%

Tranmere 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

54%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.95 · 8 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.39 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.93 + Tranmere defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.16

Tranmere attack 1.18 + Accrington ST defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Accrington ST scores more

38%

level

29%

Tranmere scores more

33%

Accrington ST at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. Whalley

Accrington ST · F

7.9

Match Events

16'

S. Whalley

35'

L. O'Connor← A. McGowan

46'

C. Grant← A. Henderson

55'

F. Sass← S. Whalley

61'

B. Blacker← N. Kenneh

62'

R. Smallwood← S. Finley

63'

C. Whitaker↳ J. Davison

64'

Cameron Norman

67'

T. Walton← S. Conneely

71'

J. Joseph←

78'

Billy Blacker

90+3'

Isaac Heath

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonTranmere

Overview

40%Possession60%

15Total Shots9

4Corners2

5Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots9

4On Target3

5Off Target3

6Blocked3

9Inside Box5

6Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

275Total Passes421

130Accurate Passes252

47%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0