Tranmere 0–1 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Tranmere

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Accrington ST

P. Madden 48'

2/17/2026

League Two · Round 33Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Tranmere40%

×Draw29%

Accrington ST32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.04

Tranmere

1.20

Accrington ST

1.04

Tranmere creates 15% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

1.10

creates per match

0.84

1.25

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Tranmere

1.10

Accrington ST

0.84

allows per match

Tranmere

1.25

Accrington ST

1.29

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Tranmere+0.21scores more

Accrington ST-0.34scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

68%

Tranmere or Accrington ST

71%

Draw or Accrington ST

60%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

17%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

70%

Tranmere 2+ goals

34%

Tranmere 3+ goals

12%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

65%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

28%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

56%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.29 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.10 + Accrington ST defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Accrington ST attack 0.84 + Tranmere defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tranmere scores more

40%

level

29%

Accrington ST scores more

32%

Tranmere at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

F. Rawson

Accrington ST · D

8.0

Match Events

29'

48'

51'

63'

69'

S. Conneely← A. Henderson

72'

J. Lowe← N. Smith

72'

K. Dennis← S. Negru

72'

C. Norman← L. Warrington

80'

Paddy Madden

90+1'

Isaac Heath

90+5'

Josh Woods

90+6'

M. Dickov←

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereAccrington

Overview

66%Possession34%

18Total Shots13

7Corners1

7Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots13

2On Target6

10Off Target4

6Blocked3

12Inside Box10

6Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

452Total Passes239

335Accurate Passes145

74%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards2

1Offsides1