Accrington ST 4–1 Tranmere: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tranmere

J. Nolan 82' (pen), 51' (pen)

A. Henderson 53'

L. Shipley 4'

L. Norris 2'

4/27/2024

League Two · Round 46Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Accrington ST38%

×Draw29%

Tranmere33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.06

Accrington ST

1.16

Tranmere

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

0.93

creates per match

1.18

0.95

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Accrington ST

0.93

Tranmere

1.18

allows per match

Accrington ST

0.95

Tranmere

1.39

+0.57scores more than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Accrington ST+0.57scores more

Tranmere-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

67%

Accrington ST or Tranmere

71%

Draw or Tranmere

62%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

16%

Tranmere wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

69%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

32%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

11%

Tranmere 1+ goals

65%

Tranmere 2+ goals

29%

Tranmere 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

54%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.95 · 8 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.39 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.93 + Tranmere defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.16

Tranmere attack 1.18 + Accrington ST defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Accrington ST scores more

38%

level

29%

Tranmere scores more

33%

Accrington ST at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Nolan

Accrington ST · M

8.7

Match Events

2'

L. Norris↳ R. Hendry

4'

L. Shipley↳ J. Nolan

51'

K. Dennis← H. Saunders

51'

J. NolanPenalty

53'

A. Henderson↳ S. Whalley

72'

S. Taylor← R. Apter

78'

Liam Coyle

82'

J. NolanPenalty

83'

B. Woods← L. Coyle

83'

J. Pritchard← A. Henderson

84'

J. Hawkes← L. Norris

85'

R. McAlear← C. Merrie

89'

M. Lowe← T. Leigh

89'

J. Woods← S. Whalley

89'

D. Martin← S. Conneely

90+1'

Lewis Shipley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonTranmere

Overview

50%Possession50%

20Total Shots10

9Corners7

13Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots10

7On Target2

9Off Target4

4Blocked4

12Inside Box6

8Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

351Total Passes368

243Accurate Passes256

69%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides3