Tranmere 2–0 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Tranmere

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Accrington ST

J. Hawkes 49', 14' (pen)

9/23/2023

League Two · Round 9Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Tranmere45%

×Draw27%

Accrington ST28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.04

Tranmere

1.38

Accrington ST

1.04

Tranmere creates 33% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

1.09

creates per match

0.88

1.21

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Tranmere

1.09

Accrington ST

0.88

allows per match

Tranmere

1.21

Accrington ST

1.66

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Tranmere+0.12scores more

Accrington ST-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

72%

Tranmere or Accrington ST

73%

Draw or Accrington ST

55%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

21%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

75%

Tranmere 2+ goals

40%

Tranmere 3+ goals

16%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

65%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

28%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

61%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.66 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.09 + Accrington ST defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.38

Accrington ST attack 0.88 + Tranmere defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tranmere scores more

45%

level

27%

Accrington ST scores more

28%

Tranmere at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. Hawkes

Tranmere · M

8.5

Match Events

14'

Toby Savin

14'

J. HawkesPenalty

42'

Jay Rich-Baghuelou

45+6'

J. McIntyre← T. Savin

49'

J. Hawkes↳ R. Hendry

61'

H. Saunders← S. Taylor

61'

64'

76'

77'

79'

90+4'

90+2'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereAccrington

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots9

8Corners6

11Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots9

7On Target3

4Off Target3

6Blocked3

10Inside Box5

7Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

406Total Passes335

281Accurate Passes212

69%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls16

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2