Trabzonspor 3–3 Beşiktaş: Result & Stats

Trabzonspor

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Beşiktaş

O. Zubkov 84'

C. Inao Oulai 63'

E. Muci 25'

V. Cerny 31', 22'

T. Abraham 18'

12/14/2025

League #203 · Round 16Papara Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Trabzonspor41%

×Draw25%

Beşiktaş34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrabzonsporExpected goals in this matchBeşiktaş

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.35

Trabzonspor

1.50

Beşiktaş

1.35

Trabzonspor creates 11% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.42

creates per match

1.52

1.18

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Trabzonspor

1.42

Beşiktaş

1.52

allows per match

Trabzonspor

1.18

Beşiktaş

1.57

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

Trabzonspor+0.28scores more

Beşiktaş-0.42scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trabzonspor ↓

Beşiktaş →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Trabzonspor or draw

66%

Trabzonspor or Beşiktaş

75%

Draw or Beşiktaş

59%

Winning margin

Trabzonspor wins by 2+

20%

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Trabzonspor 1+ goals

78%

Trabzonspor 2+ goals

44%

Trabzonspor 3+ goals

19%

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

74%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

39%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)

54%

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trabzonspor at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.18 · 10 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.57 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trabzonspor attack 1.42 + Beşiktaş defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Beşiktaş attack 1.52 + Trabzonspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Trabzonspor scores more

41%

level

25%

Beşiktaş scores more

34%

Trabzonspor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

O. Zubkov

Trabzonspor · M

8.6

Match Events

2'

Emirhan Topçu

6'

Orkun Kökçü

18'

T. Abraham↳ E. B. Toure

22'

V. Cerny↳ E. B. Toure

25'

E. Muci

31'

V. Cerny↳ M. Rashica

33'

Mustafa Eskihellaç

37'

El Bilal TouréCard upgrade

38'

El Bilal Touré

46'

S. Savic← S. Saatci

46'

D. Sikan← K. Olaigbe

63'

C. Inao Oulai↳ O. Zubkov

70'

B. Bouchouari← T. Jabol-Folcarelli

73'

D. E. Tiknaz← O. Kokcu

76'

D. Jurasek← M. Rashica

79'

Ersin Destanoğlu

84'

A. Bosluk← M. Eskihellac

84'

O. Zubkov↳ C. Inao Oulai

89'

90'

90'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TrabzonsporBeşiktaş

Overview

76%Possession24%

34Total Shots9

1.40Expected Goals (xG)1.39

7Corners1

7Fouls8

Shots

34Total Shots9

13On Target5

12Off Target3

9Blocked1

15Inside Box7

19Outside Box2

Passing

76%Possession24%

603Total Passes195

546Accurate Passes123

91%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

2Saves10

-0.40Goals Prevented-0.40

Discipline

7Fouls8

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1

League #203: Trabzonspor 3–3 Beşiktaş

Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş drew 3-3 in League #203 on December 14, 2025.

Goals: T. Abraham (18'), V. Cerny (22', 31'), E. Muci (25'), C. Inao Oulai (63'), O. Zubkov (84').

Trabzonspor controlled possession (76%) and registered 34 shots to 9.

The match was played at Papara Park in Trabzon.

Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #203: Trabzonspor 3–3 Beşiktaş