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Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor — League #203 2026

Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor
O. Kokcu 14' (pen)
E. Muci 62'
O. Zubkov 15'
5/9/2026League #203League #203 · Round 33Besiktas Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Beşiktaş47%
×Draw24%
Trabzonspor29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beşiktaş
1.67
Trabzonspor
1.28

Beşiktaş creates 30% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Beşiktaş
1.71
Trabzonspor
1.65

allows per match

Beşiktaş
0.91
Trabzonspor
1.63

finishing

Beşiktaş-0.25scores less
Trabzonspor+0.55scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Trabzonspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw
71%
Beşiktaş or Trabzonspor
76%
Draw or Trabzonspor
53%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+
24%
Trabzonspor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals
81%
Beşiktaş 2+ goals
50%
Beşiktaş 3+ goals
23%
Trabzonspor 1+ goals
72%
Trabzonspor 2+ goals
37%
Trabzonspor 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)
61%
Trabzonspor (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.91 · 13 matches

Trabzonspor away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.63 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.71 + Trabzonspor defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.67

Trabzonspor attack 1.65 + Beşiktaş defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Beşiktaş scores more
47%
level
24%
Trabzonspor scores more
29%

Beşiktaş at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
O. ZubkovTrabzonsporTrabzonspor · M
8.3

Match Events

7'
A. Yildirim← A. Onana
14'
O. KokcuPenalty
15'
O. Zubkov↳ U. Nayir
55'
Hyeon-gyu Oh
62'
E. Muci↳ O. Zubkov
70'
Jota Silva← V. Cerny
75'
Ernest Muçi
77'
P. Onuachu← E. Muci
90'
Ahmet Doğan Yıldırım
90'
B. Baskan← O. Zubkov
90'
O. Cakiroglu← A. Nwakaeme

Possession

63%Beşiktaş

Shots

21Beşiktaş

Pass accuracy

51%Beşiktaş

Statistics

BeşiktaşTrabzonspor
Overview
63%Possession37%
21Total Shots10
2.22Expected Goals (xG)0.69
6Corners3
12Fouls13
Shots
21Total Shots10
5On Target6
9Off Target4
7Blocked0
14Inside Box4
7Outside Box6
Passing
63%Possession37%
485Total Passes293
421Accurate Passes241
87%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
0.17Goals Prevented0.17
Discipline
12Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

League #203: Beşiktaş 1–2 Trabzonspor

Trabzonspor beat Beşiktaş 2-1 in League #203 on May 9, 2026.

Goals: O. Kokcu (14' pen), O. Zubkov (15'), E. Muci (62').

Beşiktaş controlled possession (63%) and registered 21 shots to 10.

The match was played at Besiktas Park in Istanbul.